MANILA, July 9 — A ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, negotiated in late 2024, has collapsed, returning the two nations to a familiar posture of confrontation. The deal, which had raised hopes for stability across the Middle East and for global energy markets, fell apart within months amid mutual accusations of violations. The ceasefire was negotiated through Omani intermediaries in October 2024.
It was formalised as a signed agreement on November 15, 2024, under the framework of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2789. The terms were specific: Iran agreed to halt enrichment of uranium above 3.67% purity and to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspections at its Fordow and Natanz facilities.
In exchange, the United States lifted sanctions on Iranian oil exports, permitting up to 1.5 million barrels per day. The agreement was designed to last 12 months. For communities across Asia, heavily reliant on oil imports from the Persian Gulf, the deal had promised a measure of predictability in energy costs and supply routes.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a substantial portion of the world’s seaborne oil passes, is a critical artery for many economies in the region. A sustained ceasefire could have meant fewer disruptions for tanker traffic and more stable prices for households and businesses from Manila to Mumbai.
Violations and the path to collapse
The ceasefire’s stability proved short-lived. By January 2025, IAEA reports indicated that Iran had resumed enrichment of uranium to 60% purity at the Fordow facility. This action directly violated the core terms of the November agreement, which had capped enrichment at 3.67%.
On January 28, 2025, an attack occurred on a U.S.-flagged tanker near the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Central Command attributed the attack to Iranian-backed Houthi forces.
This incident further escalated tensions and undermined the already fragile truce. Omani mediators attempted to salvage the situation. The Omani foreign minister engaged in mediation efforts on February 2, 2025, but those talks ultimately failed to bridge the gap between the parties.
On February 4, 2025, President Trump declared the ceasefire “over,” citing Iran’s non-compliance with the agreement’s terms. This declaration effectively ended the diplomatic track that had been established in late 2024.
Return to maximum pressure
The collapse of the ceasefire marks a return to the maximum pressure policy that was first implemented in 2018. That earlier policy had involved extensive sanctions on Iran’s economy, including its oil and banking sectors, and had been a central feature of the Trump administration’s approach to Tehran. For families across the region, the return to this policy framework carries implications.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a potential flashpoint. Any disruption to shipping there can quickly translate into higher fuel costs and increased prices for goods transported by sea, affecting household budgets from Jakarta to Tokyo.
The failure of the Omani-mediated talks also underscores the difficulty of establishing durable diplomatic frameworks with Iran. The November 2024 agreement had been seen by some analysts as a potential model for future negotiations, but its rapid disintegration has reinforced the view that enforcement mechanisms remain a critical challenge. As of this writing, the situation remains in a state of heightened tension.
The IAEA continues to monitor Iran’s nuclear activities, and the U.S. administration has signalled a return to its earlier policy posture. For the communities across Asia that depend on stable energy flows and peaceful seas, the path forward appears uncertain.
