ADDIS ABABA, September 26 — Fighting between the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front and Ethiopian federal forces has intensified across northern Ethiopia, threatening to restart the conflict that followed four years of fragile peace, according to a Conflict Update issued on 25 September 2026 by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. The record shows the war is opening on multiple fronts at once.
Dr Jalale Gettachew Birru, East Africa Senior Analyst at ACLED, said the significance is not simply that fighting has intensified, but that several military fronts are now active simultaneously, civilian areas are being exposed to airstrikes, communications are being disrupted, and political divisions within Tigray are becoming increasingly visible.
Multiple Fronts, Multiple Exposures
Clashes have spread across the Tigray-Amhara border, into Afar and towards western Tigray, while repeated drone strikes have been reported across Tigray and north Amhara. On 22 September alone, ACLED sources reported between 15 and 17 drone strikes in Alamata in Southern Tigray zone, with schools, a hospital and other locations among the reported targets. Further drone strikes were reported in Northwestern Tigray zone on 23 and 24 September.
The number of casualties remains unclear, but civilians and combatants have reportedly been killed. Fighting involving federal forces, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and Tigraya Defense Forces has spread across multiple locations in North Wello and Wag Hamera zones in Amhara, resulting in the suspension of flights at Lalibela airport on 24 September afternoon.
A further front has opened around the Tekeze River in Tslimoy and May Gaba in the disputed western Tigray area.
Communications Cut, Leaders Detained
Telecommunication services operated by Etio-Telecom have been disrupted across Tigray, except western Tigray, making information increasingly difficult to verify. Senior Tigrayan military figures and members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, including former interim regional president Tadesse Werede and the head of intelligence for TDF, have reportedly been detained after being accused of sharing information with the federal government. Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, ACLED CEO, cautioned against concluding that Ethiopia is at war again.
She noted that during the previous Tigray war the government declared a state of emergency the day after TPLF forces attacked several bases in the north, and that the current situation is not close to that point. She said there are reasons to be concerned, including alliances with Amhara and Oromo factions, and that the situation is incredibly fluid.
She added that she does not expect a return to a quiet, low-intensity conflict because too many interests are involved, and that the brakes that might prevent further escalation are not currently visible. Dr Jalale Gettachew Birru also said he does not see the alliance succeeding in removing the government.
What to Watch
The developments have been covered by CNN, DW, Reuters and NPR, with reports focusing on the return of war to Tigray, the risk of regional spread in the Horn of Africa, internal discord among Tigray’s leaders, and growing fears of a return to war. On the timeline, the coming days will test whether the multiple fronts hold or widen further, and whether the disrupted communications across Tigray can be restored enough to allow independent verification of what is happening on the ground.
