Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had climbed to 49 ships on July 7, the busiest day since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire took hold. By Wednesday, Kpler data showed only 25 crossing. Early Thursday, just two tankers had gotten through.
That collapse in shipping tracks the collapse of the truce itself. President Donald Trump, speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit on Wednesday, declared the ceasefire with Iran “over” and called his Iranian counterparts “scum” and “sick people,” ABC News reported.
How the deal was built
The U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire on April 7, before Vice President JD Vance traveled to Pakistan for talks with Iranian officials. It was extended indefinitely in late April. After two months of stalled negotiations, the two sides signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17. It formalized the ceasefire, ended the U.S. naval blockade, reopened Hormuz and offered Iran incentives that included a broad waiver on oil sanctions. A 60-day period to negotiate a permanent deal began, with talks in Switzerland that have since sputtered.
The strait was the problem from the start. The text said only that Iran should use “its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only,” and did not rule out “service fees” later. Iran took that to mean it keeps some control over the waterway. The U.S. read the pact as clearing the way for an open strait by the end of the 60 days.
The unraveling
Just over a week after signing, Iran launched a drone strike on a ship in the strait. Washington viewed it as a violation and answered with contained strikes. The next day Iran hit a tanker, the U.S. struck several targets, and Iran fired at Bahrain and Kuwait, though those attacks were intercepted. Both sides then stopped.
This week brought something larger. Iran struck three vessels in the strait early in the week, and the U.S. rescinded Iran’s license to sell oil internationally, reversing a central provision of the memorandum. Strikes on consecutive nights followed. On Wednesday night U.S. Central Command hit 90 targets, widening the campaign to southern and northeastern Iran. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said two bridges were among them.
Iranian officials said American weapons struck near the perimeter of the Russian-built nuclear power plant in Bushehr province, according to deputy governor Ehsan Jahanian, and that railways were hit, halting passenger trains from Tehran to Mashhad, where Iranians had gathered for the funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Khamenei died in airstrikes in the opening days of the war. Iran said it renewed strikes on Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, and Jordan said it intercepted eight missiles from Iran.
Talks that are not quite over
Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator, said Hormuz “will be reopened only under Iranian arrangements, not through US threats.” Vance linked the U.S. strikes directly to what Iran was doing in the strait. “That artery has got to remain open, and that is what the Iranians have to know,” he said.
Then Trump wrote on Truth Social on Friday that Iran “has asked us to continue ‘talks’” and that the U.S. had agreed to engage, while telling Tehran “in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!” On Air Force One, returning from Turkey, he said Iran wanted “to make a deal so badly” but added: “I just don’t know if they’re worthy of making a deal. I don’t know that they’re going to honor the deal.”
Sources
- Trump declares Iran ‘Cease Fire is OVER!’ – AOL
- How the US-Iran ceasefire and MOU broke down — a timeline
