For most of election night, Rafal Trzaskowski looked like Poland’s next president. Then a second exit poll flipped the picture, and by the time the final numbers came in, Karol Nawrocki had won the runoff with 50.89% of the vote to Trzaskowski’s 49.11%. Poland’s National Electoral Commission projected the result.
Both men had claimed victory early. Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, told supporters, “we won by a whisker.” Nawrocki, a nationalist historian and amateur boxer, posted on X: “Thank you all! We will triumph.” Polish broadcaster TVP had called the race “the most even” in the country’s history.
The first exit poll showed no decisive winner. The final one, released at 1am local time with a margin of error of 0.5%, still had Nawrocki ahead. Turnout reached a record 71.7%, passing the 68.23% recorded in the 1995 presidential race.
Two candidates, one deadlocked government
Nawrocki, who is also the director of the Institute of National Remembrance, ran with the backing of the nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS). Trzaskowski, 53, represented the Civic Coalition (KO), the party of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. He had promised to help Tusk’s government finish its democratic reforms, which both say are meant to repair damage to checks and balances under the previous nationalist government.
The result is a heavy blow to Tusk. PiS lost power in 2023 after eight years, and the win hands the party a boost. Outgoing president Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has spent several years stonewalling Tusk’s policies, and many items on the prime minister’s list remain stuck in the standoff between the two offices. Tusk’s government has apologized to LGBT people on state television, worked to depoliticize courts filled with PiS loyalists over the past 10 years, and moved to liberalize abortion access.
Parliament holds most of the power in Poland. Still, the president can veto legislation, which is why Ukraine, Russia, the United States and the European Union all followed the vote closely.
Where they split on Ukraine
Both candidates said Poland should spend heavily on defense, as Donald Trump is demanding of Europe, and both backed continued support for Ukraine against Russia’s three-year-old invasion. They parted ways on NATO. Trzaskowski regards Ukrainian membership as essential to Poland’s security. Nawrocki said recently that as president he would refuse to ratify it, citing the danger of the alliance being pulled into a war with Russia.
In the final stretch of the campaign, Tusk stressed broad security concerns, among them the threat of “weaponised” migration across the border with Belarus, a Russian ally.
Sources
- Right-Wing Karol Nawrocki Wins Polish Presidential Election – The Daily Sceptic
- 2025 Polish presidential election
