The shift came in one afternoon of briefings. On Wednesday, October 23, 2024, the United States said for the first time that it had seen evidence of North Korean troops in Russia. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin put it plainly: “There is evidence that there are DPRK troops in Russia.”
White House spokesperson John Kirby later said Washington believed at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers were training there. They had come by ship in early to mid October from North Korea’s Wonsan region to the Russian city of Vladivostok, he said, and then been taken to three military training sites in eastern Russia. The 3,000 figure was twice the earlier estimate.
Kirby also had a warning for Pyongyang. “If they do deploy to fight against Ukraine, they’re fair game,” he said. “They’re fair targets and the Ukrainian military will defend themselves against North Korean soldiers the same way they’re defending themselves against Russian soldiers.”
What Seoul was hearing
In Seoul, South Korean lawmakers briefed by the national intelligence agency said Pyongyang had promised about 10,000 troops in total, with the deployment expected to finish by December. The agency had said the previous Friday that 1,500 special forces had already gone by ship and were likely to fight after training and acclimatisation. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had accused North Korea of preparing to send 10,000 soldiers.
Lawmaker Park Sun-won said signs of troops training inside North Korea were detected in September and October, and that they now appeared to be spread over several training facilities in Russia. Fellow committee member Lee Seong-kweun said Pyongyang was trying to keep the news quiet, and that the agency had seen signs of troops’ families being moved and isolated. He said Russia had recruited a “large number” of interpreters and was training the North Koreans on equipment such as drones.
Lee relayed a blunt assessment from Russian instructors. They judged the North Korean military to have “excellent physical attributes and morale” but little grasp of modern warfare such as drone attacks. “Therefore there could be many casualties if they are deployed to the frontlines,” he said.
Denials and reactions
The Kremlin had called Seoul’s claims “fake news,” and a North Korean representative to the United Nations called them “groundless rumours” at a meeting in New York on Monday. Moscow and Pyongyang have also denied weapons transfers, though they pledged to boost military ties and signed a mutual defence treaty at a summit in June.
Austin said the deployment, if real, could show Russia has trouble finding enough soldiers. U.S. officials speaking anonymously put Russian losses at more than 600,000 killed or wounded. “This is an indication that he [Vladimir Putin] may be even in more trouble than most people realise,” Austin said. He added it would be “very, very serious” if the North Koreans were preparing to fight in Ukraine.
On Tuesday, South Korea’s presidential office urged an immediate withdrawal of the North’s troops and warned that it might consider supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine if military ties between the two went too far.
