Andrew Neil sees a trap. His reading of Labour’s sudden infatuation with Andy Burnham is cold-eyed, and the party would be wise to listen. Burnham’s win in the Makerfield by-election was real.
The margin over Reform UK was substantial. But a single victory, even a commanding one, does not a saviour make.
Labour MPs are staring down the barrel of a disastrous general election. Many will lose their seats. The party is desperate.
Desperate parties look for a hero. Burnham, with his straightforward manner and his record as Mayor of Greater Manchester, fits the bill.
He won in a constituency that voted heavily for Brexit. That matters. It suggests he can reach voters the current leadership cannot.
The numbers from Makerfield tell a story that goes beyond Burnham. Reform UK ran a weak campaign. And Restore, a party even further to the Right, split the populist vote.
That is not a formula that will repeat itself everywhere. Labour is reading the headline and ignoring the fine print.
Burnham’s appeal is real, but it is not a magic wand. The deeper trend is what Neil points to. Mainstream parties across the democratic world are struggling against populism.
Labour is no exception. They want a leader who can stand up to the populist Right and win.
Keir Starmer has not proven he is that person. Burnham has shown he can do it, at least in one place, at one time. The shift inside Labour is toward pragmatism.
They are looking for a candidate who can hold seats and win back voters who drifted to Reform. Burnham fits that mould. He is not a radical.
He is not a firebrand. He is a serious, experienced politician who speaks in plain terms.
That is a rare commodity in British politics right now. But Neil is right to separate hype from reality. Burnham’s win in Makerfield does not mean he can rescue Labour nationally.
The party’s problems run deep. They have lost touch with working-class voters.
They have struggled to define themselves against both the Conservatives and the populist Right. One by-election victory does not fix that. Labour’s enthusiasm for Burnham is understandable.
It is also dangerous. If the party pins its hopes on one man, and that man fails to deliver, the disappointment will be crushing. The party needs more than a charismatic leader.
It needs a coherent strategy, a clear message, and a plan that works outside of safe Labour strongholds. Watch what happens next.
The push to replace Starmer with Burnham is real. It could reshape the party’s entire approach to the next election. Burnham’s ability to win in a pro-Brexit constituency is a data point.
It is not a guarantee. The forces that drove Reform UK’s rise are still there.
The populist mood has not evaporated. Labour is betting that Burnham can channel that mood back into the mainstream. It is a gamble.
Neil’s warning is simple: do not mistake a single victory for a movement. Burnham is a talented politician. He may well be Labour’s best hope.
But hope is not a plan. The party needs to look at the full picture, not just the one bright spot.
The road ahead is long, and the populist Right is not going away.
