Iran holds roughly 10% of the world’s proven oil reserves, which is why a shift in tone from Tehran on nuclear weapons moves crude prices. That shift is now visible among senior lawmakers, according to Crypto Briefing.
For decades, Iran’s line has been that it does not want nuclear weapons, will not build them, and has a religious edict forbidding them. The edict is a fatwa issued by the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The line is now cracking, at least in speeches.
What the lawmakers said
On July 8, Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, warned that a new all-out US attack could push Iran to reconsider its nuclear doctrine entirely. He went on to float withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the 1968 agreement that anchors global nuclear restraint.
He had raised the subject five days earlier. On July 3, Rezaei cited Israeli threats against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei as a legitimate reason to revisit Iran’s approach. Hossein Samsami, a member of the Economic Commission, called the country’s situation an “existential war” on July 9 and said it demands a fresh look at nuclear posture.
What is changing is that senior officials now publicly ask whether that shield is enough. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father, has not publicly reaffirmed or changed the ruling while strikes continue.
Rhetoric is not policy
Rezaei and Samsami sit in parliament. Neither belongs to the Supreme National Security Council or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Real nuclear decisions pass through a far smaller circle and end with the Supreme Leader, Crypto Briefing wrote.
The statements follow sustained military pressure. US and Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, and another round came in February 2026. US intelligence assessments have consistently indicated that Iran has not pursued active weaponization of its nuclear program.
A treaty exit would carry its own precedent. North Korea left the NPT in 2003 and tested its first nuclear device three years later.
For markets, the February 2026 strikes already produced short-term price spikes. Any escalation that disrupts Iranian production or transit through the Strait of Hormuz would send crude surging.
