Montenegro has closed 16 of its 33 accession chapters. Its government wanted the other 17 done before the end of the year, and the country that would host those talks was Ireland. Dublin was due to take over the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU on July 1, 2026, and RFE/RL Europe editor Rikard Jozwiak laid out in a June briefing why enlargement would sit near the top of its agenda.
The symbolism is hard to miss. Dublin held the presidency in 2004, when the bloc took in eight Central and Eastern European countries along with Cyprus and Malta. Irish diplomats told Jozwiak that episode is still remembered fondly at home, and that surveys show the Irish largely favour enlarging the union.
In Brussels, Ireland is regarded as a real “honest broker.” Its government has never blocked an enlargement step, and it has no bilateral quarrels with any candidate. Enlargement is one of Dublin’s top priorities for the period, so significant progress is expected.
Montenegro and Albania
Each chapter covers a policy area in which a candidate must adopt EU rules. Prime Minister Micheal Martin visited Montenegro in early June, around the EU-Western Balkans summit, and called finishing everything in six months “challenging” but said it was Dublin’s goal. Montenegro wants to become member No. 28 in 2028. An EU diplomat said that means wrapping up talks in 2026 or very early the next year, since all 27 members must ratify the accession treaty, which could take a year or more.
Cyprus, the outgoing presidency, could still close up to three more chapters at the end of June. Ireland hopes to hold regular intergovernmental conferences in the autumn to close more. The working group drafting Montenegro’s treaty began its work in May, and European officials said it was going smoothly.
Albania had been stuck on interim benchmarks in chapters 23 and 24, which cover the rule of law, and met them at the end of May. It could soon close chapters on science and research, education and culture, and external relations. If Cyprus does not manage the first closures by the end of June, Ireland is expected to do it in July.
Ukraine and Moldova
The two countries are moving together. The first cluster of five chapters opened the week before, after Hungary had blocked it for over two years under the previous Fidesz-led government. The European Commission hopes the remaining five clusters, containing 28 chapters, can open in late June or, more likely, in July.
Doubts remain. At the EU summit, Hungary’s new Prime Minister Peter Magyar struck “as soon as possible” from the final communique. He has given Ukraine a 10-15-year time frame. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico called Ukraine’s membership a “long-term, long-term process.” Diplomats said Czechia and Poland appear comfortable with Budapest slowing things down. A Polish diplomat said Warsaw would prefer “a salami process,” opening a few chapters at a time. One idea circulating in Brussels was two clusters in July and three in the autumn.
Serbia, Iceland and the stalled four
Serbia, frozen on its EU path since late 2021, could open a cluster on economics and competitiveness as early as July, with France pushing for it. The Netherlands is wary because of rule-of-law problems.
Iceland applied in 2009 and closed 11 of 33 chapters before suspending talks in 2013, during an earlier Irish presidency. It planned a referendum in late August on resuming them. Europe minister Thomas Byrne said that if talks restart, “I think it would be a big moment for us.”
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo and North Macedonia were expected to stand still. Georgia has effectively suspended its accession efforts until 2028. Kosovo’s 2022 application has not been forwarded to the Commission because Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain do not recognise its statehood.
