The checkpoints are staffed by volunteers as young as 12. That was the word from Rahim Nadali, a senior Revolutionary Guards official, who told state television in late March that the Basij militia had lowered its minimum age for checkpoint and patrol duty. Reuters reported on March 30 that the change points to a force short of manpower, even as it works to keep Iran quiet.
A month into its war with the United States and Israel, Iran was answering fear of unrest with arrests, executions and heavy street deployments, Reuters said. The Basij, a voluntary paramilitary run by the Guards, has set up checkpoints inside major cities and at their entrances. Activists said the posts stayed in place even after Israeli strikes hit some of them.
Fear of what comes after the bombing
There was little sign yet that anyone was defying the warnings against protest. Officials, though, worry about the day the fighting stops. Reuters cited people inside Iran and rights groups abroad who fear that with the hardline Guards in the ascendancy, a bloody confrontation inside the country could follow.
One source in Iran said worry about future unrest was the main reason for the crackdown. Another, a senior contact, said officials were focused on keeping supply chains running during the war but were growing anxious about the aftermath.
Ali Ansari, a professor of modern history at the University of St Andrews, put it bluntly. “All the old problems will come back worse when peace comes,” he said. “The regime is paranoid, wounded and bitter and it will want to crush any trouble before it starts, but doing so could actually turn more people against it.”
An economy under strain
Reporting from inside Iran is hard. The internet is often cut, and authorities have published no reliable data on the economic damage since the war began. Still, Reuters described widespread damage to infrastructure, including energy facilities that bring in revenue, little prospect of sanctions relief, and strained ties with economic partners after attacks on neighbours.
Mohammad, a 38-year-old from Tehran who asked to stay anonymous for fear of reprisal, works for a trading company that has warned staff it may cut jobs. “Our main business is with countries in the region,” he said, “and obviously it’s not clear whether that can continue after the war.”
The unrest the government fears has a recent precedent. In January, Iran’s clerics and Revolutionary Guards killed thousands of people while putting down nationwide protests sparked by anger over the weak economy.
Arrests, threats and crowded streets
Louis Charbonneau of Human Rights Watch said Iranian authorities “continue to carry out waves of arrests targeting real and perceived dissidents, members of Iran’s ethnic and religious minorities including Baha’is, and people who share reports or footage of strikes.” Three rights activists inside Iran told Reuters the pressure was strongest in regions with large Kurdish, Arab and Baluchi populations, where much earlier unrest was centred.
Families have been targeted too. Security forces warned the parents of suspected agitators that their children could be jailed or executed and that relatives could be punished, the activists said. Iranians living abroad were warned by the prosecutor general’s office that their property could be confiscated if they voice support for the U.S. or Israel.
On most nights, the authorities bring supporters out for pro-government rallies and ceremonies mourning officials killed in the airstrikes. Hadi Ghaemi, head of the Center for Human Rights in Iran, said the aim looks like filling public space so protesters cannot use it. “They even target neighbourhoods where they cruise in vehicles and intimidate people in their homes by chanting pro-regime slogans and shooting guns in the air,” he said.
A Tehran resident who asked not to be named said people were too scared to go out at night. The resident feared that if the ruling authorities survive the war, an even bloodier crackdown would follow.
