Iran weighed hitting a Ukrainian seaport with a ballistic missile after Ukraine struck an Iranian ship, the New York Times reported, citing Iranian and Western officials. A “flurry of diplomacy” has calmed things for now, the paper said.
People familiar with intelligence assessments told the Times they had expected a missile with a small warhead, fired as a symbolic warning meant to do limited damage. Other officials said the likely target was one of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. The Times noted that any missile launched from Iran toward Ukraine would be an escalation and could set off a wider war. Iranian officials, speaking anonymously, said they hoped the confrontation would end with a single retaliatory strike. Western officials said it was hard to predict how Ukraine would respond.
How the dispute began
On July 25, Iran accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea and called it an act of aggression. Tehran said Kyiv was trying to widen the war. Its Foreign Ministry added that Iran would defend its interests and national security under the principle of self-defense in international law. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also posted a message on X that included a threat aimed at President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Earlier that day, Zelenskyy had said Ukraine achieved “very good results” with long-range strikes in the Caspian, naming vessels carrying military cargo linked to Iran. Answering the threats, he said Iran and North Korea had already attacked Ukraine by supplying Russia with weapons, military technology and soldiers.
Iran says one sailor was killed and several others were hurt. After the accusation, some Iranian officials and pro-government media said Ukrainian territory was within reach of Iran’s ballistic missiles.
On July 28, Ukraine’s acting Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha phoned Araghchi and told him Ukraine wants to avoid escalation. Araghchi replied that Ukraine should compensate Iran for the sinking of the merchant vessel.
Zelenskyy, on his latest trip to the United States, pledged to hand over intelligence on Russia’s support for Iran in its war with the US. Ukrainian officials say Russia has given Iran satellite imagery of US military bases in the Middle East.
What the missiles can reach
Analysts cited by Defense Express say several of Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles could theoretically reach Ukraine from launch sites inside Iran. The Ghadr, Emad and Sejjil are rated at about 2,000 kilometers. The Khorramshahr is the longest-range of them, with estimates up to 4,000 kilometers. Iran has shown a Khorramshahr variant with a cluster warhead that splits into dozens of submunitions, which makes interception harder.
Patriot batteries have proved effective against Russian ballistic missiles, but their ability against some medium-range types is limited. Analysts say the best defenses are Israel’s Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 and the American SM-3 naval interceptor, the systems the US and Israel used against large Iranian attacks on Israel.
Iran’s stockpile has also shrunk. It fired many intermediate-range missiles in its recent standoff with Israel, and Israeli and US strikes under Operation Epic Fury hit launchers, production sites and warehouses. Military experts caution against hasty conclusions: range alone does not make a strike inevitable, they say, since the decision depends on the political, military and international fallout.
Sources
- NYT: Iran wanted to fire ballistic missile on Ukrainian port
- Iran threatens Ukraine with ballistic missiles: what missiles can reach and is the air defense capable of stopping them?
