Ukraine’s ties to NATO stretch back more than three decades, to the moment a newly independent state signed up to the North Atlantic Cooperation Council in 1991 and the Partnership for Peace programme in 1994, per the alliance’s own account. The Charter on a Distinctive Partnership followed in 1997 and remains, in NATO’s words, the basic foundation of the relationship.
The promise that has haunted the partnership ever since came at the April 2008 summit in Bucharest, where the bloc declared its doors open to Ukraine. As LB.ua analyst Petro Herasymenko notes, nobody then imagined the doors would still be open, and unentered, more than 16 years later. Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014 brought steadily rising allied support, training and equipment, but not the invitation; Kyiv wrote the membership aim into its constitution in 2019 and its National Security Strategy in September 2020.
By the July 2023 summit in Vilnius, Ukraine hoped for a Membership Action Plan and got none, prompting Volodymyr Zelenskyy to blast the absence of any timeframe as “unprecedented and absurd” and to warn that “Uncertainty is weakness.” The alliance instead scrapped the MAP requirement outright and confirmed only that Ukraine will one day be a member.
At the anniversary Washington summit in July 2024, the pattern held. Leaders agreed to a €40 billion support package for 2025, set up a NATO-Ukraine centre for joint analysis, training and education and pledged extra air defence systems, but the invitation again went unissued, with the United States and Germany holding firm against it. The communiqué offered the now-familiar formulation: “We continue to support Ukraine on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership. Ukraine’s future is in NATO,” while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken touted an “incredibly powerful package” building a “strong bridge” to membership. Notably, the Biden team had resisted the word “irreversible” days earlier and relented only under European pressure.
The mechanism, and the blockage, is consensus: every member must say yes. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico put the opposition bluntly: “I understand Ukraine’s desire, it is a sovereign country, but Ukraine’s membership in NATO is only a guarantee of World War III.” Hungary’s Viktor Orbán likewise casts Ukraine as a buffer between Russia and the alliance. The Washington declaration did harden one line, naming Russia the most significant and direct threat and giving it “sole responsibility” for its war, while flagging China as “a decisive factor” enabling it. But on the question that has stood since Bucharest, when Ukraine actually walks through the door, the alliance still has no answer.
Sources
- NATOs Washington Summit and Ukraine: a vague hope
- Ukraine's Path to NATO Membership: Timeline, Challenges & Prospects | Ukraine War Analytics
