BERLIN, September 5 — Germany’s political establishment is entering uncharted territory following the February 23 federal election, in which the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) captured roughly 20.8 percent of the vote, its strongest national result since the party’s founding. Preliminary official results place the AfD second, a historic breakthrough for a movement that German domestic intelligence classifies as a suspected right-wing extremist organization.
The result directly challenges the postwar consensus known as the “firewall” (Brandmauer), under which mainstream parties have refused to cooperate with far-right forces in light of the country’s Nazi past. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel has called the outcome a “historic victory” and demanded a role in government.
All major parties, however, have ruled out forming a coalition with her party.
Centrist Arithmetic
The conservative CDU/CSU bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, took the largest share with approximately 28.5 percent, according to the official tally. That falls well short of a majority, forcing Merz into negotiations. The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz dropped to third place with about 16.4 percent — its worst federal result since 1887.
The Greens, the SPD’s partner in the collapsed ruling coalition, secured roughly 11.6 percent. Exploratory talks between the CDU/CSU and SPD have begun.
Officials on both sides describe the process as lengthy and contentious, with policy gaps on fiscal and migration questions yet to be bridged. The election was called early after Scholz’s three-party coalition broke apart in November 2024 over economic and fiscal disputes. That collapse, followed by a knife attack in Aschaffenburg in January and a car-ramming in Munich in February — both linked to migrants — sharpened the anti-immigration mood that propelled the AfD’s surge.
East-West Divide
The AfD’s strongest gains came in the former East German states, where it won pluralities in several districts. The pattern reflects lingering economic grievances and social dissatisfaction in regions that remain measurably poorer than the west more than three decades after reunification. International observers, including in Washington, have voiced concern about what the AfD’s parliamentary weight means for NATO and European Union cohesion.
The party takes a pro-Russian line and has criticized Western sanctions on Moscow, placing it at odds with the transatlantic consensus on Ukraine policy. The central question now is whether the CDU/CSU-SPD talks yield a stable centrist government.
Should they fail, Germany faces either a grand re-run or a realignment that could hand the AfD influence from opposition benches it has never before occupied. The outcome will test whether the postwar democratic order holds against the strongest far-right challenge it has yet faced.
