“In recent weeks, the threat, particularly the Russian hybrid threat, facing Europeans and France has intensified.” Emmanuel Macron said it to reporters on September 18, after a meeting at the Élysée with presidential candidates and senior military, intelligence and energy officials. France votes for a president on September 28, and Macron cannot run again, having served two mandates.
AFP reported that the meeting was expected to address the rapid decline in global relations, including the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and what they mean for French security and energy prices.
The warning came days after France’s strategic planning body, the Haut-Commissariat à la Stratégie et au Plan (HCSP), published a 40-page document on Tuesday setting out a 2035 security objective. Its central expectation is that confrontation will spread to the seabed and outer space. “Critical digital infrastructure, the seabed and outer space will increasingly become areas of strategic confrontation between states, as well as between private and state actors,” the report says. It adds that “an increasing share of power, and also vulnerabilities, will be concentrated in these spaces, which are largely invisible to citizens.”
Ten to fifty
The report backs the claim with one hard figure. Between 2022 and 2024, Russia-attributed hybrid warfare operations in Europe grew from fewer than 10 to nearly 50. On that trend, the authors conclude such actions are bound to multiply across cyber, economic and information sectors.
Hybrid warfare, in the report’s terms, means methods that stay below the threshold of open military conflict. That makes it harder to prove who is behind an attack.
Three recommendations
To operate in what it calls a “durably degraded” security landscape, the HCSP makes several recommendations for Paris and for Europe.
First, speed up the transformation of the military model to head off the threat of a major war in Europe. French military officials have urged a shift away from smaller, international counter-terrorism forces toward large-scale, high-intensity combat readiness and a war-economy approach. The budget effort, the report says, must match a clear European goal for 2035: the ability, “acting among Europeans if necessary,” to prevent any attack meant to test Europe’s unity and credibility.
Second, end Europe’s technological dependence on US and Chinese suppliers and favour European-made systems. France moved on this in January, with plans for a Digital Sovereignty Observatory to map how far the government and linked businesses rely on non-European technology. The aim by 2035, the report says, is not full European military integration but closer work with like-minded partners who can deliver quickly.
Third, protect national unity. A key capability will be spotting and countering information attacks designed to destabilise societies, though the report does not say how.
