How does one country build more solar in a single year than the whole world managed a year earlier? That is what China did in 2023. The International Energy Agency says China commissioned in 2023 about the same solar PV capacity as the whole planet did the year before. Its wind additions grew by 66% on the year before.
China: the scale of the build
The mechanism is partly sheer construction pace. A Global Energy Monitor report, covered by the Guardian in July 2024, found China building utility-scale solar of 180 gigawatts (GW) alongside 159GW of wind. That is 339GW in total, against 40GW in the US. The report counted only solar farms of 20MW or more that feed straight into the grid, so the real figure is higher: small-scale farms make up about 40% of China’s solar capacity.
One-third of China’s proposed wind and solar projects had reached construction, the report said, while the global rate was 7%. In the twelve months to March 2024, the researchers found, China put in more solar than in the three years before, and more than all other countries together managed in 2023. At that pace it would hit 1,200GW of wind and solar by the close of 2024, six years early against Beijing’s own goal.
Li Shuo of the Asia Policy Institute asked the obvious follow-up question: “how come the rest of the world is so slow?” He also warned that building alone would not fix the problem, since there was no sign China was steering away from coal.
Europe: a record year, then a slowdown
SolarPower Europe reported in December 2023 that the EU had set a record with 56 GW of solar, or 55.9 GW to be precise, up from 40 GW in 2022. Germany led with 14.1 GW, followed by Spain with 8.2 GW, Italy with 4.8 GW, Poland with 4.6 GW and the Netherlands with 4.1 GW. The total EU solar fleet reached 263 GW, up 27% from 207 GW in 2022.
Much of the surge, the trade body noted, came from installations delayed from 2022 after the energy crisis, and the final months of 2023 were quieter. It forecast an 11% rise in 2024. Its chief executive, Walburga Hemetsberger, warned that the average of 70 GW a year needed for the 2030 solar targets was still out of reach.
The wider goal is bigger. The IEA notes that the EU adopted a new Renewable Energy Directive lifting the 2030 target for the renewable share of final energy use to 42.5%, up from 32%, with 45% as an aspiration.
The United States: a rebound
The US had a weak 2022, when only 20.2 GW of solar went in, down 16% on the year before. In September 2023, the industry group SEIA and the consultancy Wood Mackenzie said nearly 32 GW was expected that year, ahead of their March forecast of 28.4 GW. They gave the Inflation Reduction Act the credit for growth despite supply chain problems and trade investigations.
Michelle Davis of Wood Mackenzie said the law had caused “a wave of optimism” and that announcements for domestic module manufacturing had “exploded”.
Globally, the IEA expects renewables to supply 37% of electricity in 2026, against 30% in 2023, largely on cheap solar.
Sources
- China building two-thirds of world's wind and solar projects (The Guardian)
- New report: EU solar reaches record heights of 56 GW in 2023 but warns of clouds on the horizon (SolarPower Europe)
- US solar installations expected to jump 52% to nearly 32 GW in 2023: SEIA (Utility Dive)
- Electricity 2024: Analysis and forecast to 2026 (International Energy Agency)
