Two exit polls, same number: 51.3% for the opposition. When Swedish polling stations closed at 8 p.m. on Sunday, public broadcaster SVT and rival channel TV4 both put Magdalena Andersson’s four-party center-left bloc ahead of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing alliance. SVT had the right on 46.8 percent, TV4 on 47.0 percent, according to Xinhua.
The Swedish election authority’s projection was tighter still. Reuters reported that the opposition was on course for 175 seats in the 349-seat parliament, against 174 for Kristersson’s side. A one-seat majority.
A warning from 2022
Nobody in Stockholm was calling it yet. Swedish exit polls have a mixed record, and in 2022 one projected a left-wing win before the right-wing coalition took the election. Local experts had already predicted a result that could go down to the wire, and Kristersson, who trailed in opinion polls through most of his four years in office, had been closing the gap in the final weeks while Andersson’s Social Democrats slipped.
Even a left-wing win would not settle things quickly. The four opposition parties are ideologically splintered and would have to negotiate a government. “It might take a bit of time, but we will get a government led by Magdalena,” said Emilia Wikstrom Melin, a 40-year-old union analyst.
The Sweden Democrats slip
The poll numbers also carried bad news for the Sweden Democrats. The anti-immigration party, part of the right-wing alliance, was shown at 17.7% of the vote, down from 20.5% in 2022. It would be the first drop since the party entered parliament in 2010, and it would cost the Sweden Democrats their place as the second-biggest party. “Of course it’s a bit of a disappointment,” said Julia Kronlid, a party member of parliament, but she added that it was “still not finished, it can still change.”
Kristersson has governed for four years at the head of a minority coalition that relied on the party’s backing from outside the cabinet, which gave it real influence over policy. This time he said he would bring the Sweden Democrats formally into government if his bloc won, breaking a longstanding taboo. The right had already agreed on a four-party government under him.
Andersson made that the centerpiece of her case as she voted. It was a very important election, she told media, “if we for the first time should have a right-wing extremist party founded by neo-Nazis in government, or a government led by me.” The Sweden Democrats acknowledge that neo-Nazis and white supremacists helped found the party in the 1980s, but say they have purged such people and apologized for the past.
Immigration on the ballot
Under Kristersson, Sweden’s policy shifted sharply: permanent residency for refugees was abolished, welfare rules were tightened and expulsions of those with no right to stay were stepped up. Supporters say the changes helped curb gang violence and cut immigration dramatically. Johanna Tornqvist, 44, a market analyst who backed the right, said fears about the Sweden Democrats in government were exaggerated. “The most important thing is to keep the red-greens out of government,” she said.
Kahin Ahmed, 57, a sociologist who came to Sweden from Somalia as a refugee, saw it differently. “They target Muslims. They single out Muslims and immigrants. But immigrants contribute to society,” he said. Party leader Jimmie Akesson, voting in Rinkeby near Stockholm, said the suburb “doesn’t look like Sweden.”
The outcome could hinge on a small party. If the Liberals, in Kristersson’s coalition, fail to clear the 4% threshold, the right loses seats it cannot spare. First preliminary results were due later on Sunday evening.
Sources
- Exit polls show center-left opposition bloc leading Swedish election | The Star
- Sweden's centre-left bloc holds narrow lead in elections
