“Are you going to become the new prime minister?” Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby shouted as Andy Burnham walked away from his victory rally. He did not answer. Cameras, tables and chairs hemmed him in at Ashton Town FC’s ground, and the new MP for Makerfield quickened his pace until it was, by the Guardian’s account, close to a jog.
The silence said more than the speech. Burnham had just won the Makerfield by-election overnight, returning to Westminster after nine years as Greater Manchester mayor, and the result put Keir Starmer’s position in doubt.
The numbers
Burnham’s majority over Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon was 9,231 votes. Labour took 55% of the vote and Reform 35%, while the hard-right Restore Britain party won 7%. Turnout reached 59%, six percentage points higher than at the general election, with 45,510 votes cast. He polled more than Reform and Restore combined.
The seat had been a target for Nigel Farage, whose party made sweeping gains there in the local elections the previous month. Burnham defied the national trend by raising Labour’s share instead.
Pollster Peter Kellner noted that the Liberal Democrats and Greens together won 11% of the Makerfield vote two years ago. This time they managed 1%. Both ran subdued campaigns, which let Labour absorb a wide range of voters while the right-wing vote split between Reform and Restore.
Starmer holds on, for now
At the rally Burnham called the win the “last chance” to change Britain. “The word Makerfield in the future must be known as a byword for the change that came to British politics,” he said. “This is the moment.”
Louise Haigh, the former transport secretary who ran his campaign, was more direct. She hoped the prime minister would spend the weekend reflecting, saying a leadership contest “would be brutal, it would be unpleasant and it would be very unlikely the PM would win.” Asked whether Burnham had a leadership campaign ready if Starmer refused to move, she answered, “Yes.”
Starmer, for his part, insisted he would stand in any contest that is triggered. Downing Street said there was “no vacancy.” Starmer read the result differently, telling reporters it showed the tide was turning on Reform, which he said had probably passed its peak of support.
Allies of Burnham and Wes Streeting planned to ask cabinet ministers and Labour grandees to talk Starmer out of a fight over the weekend. Burnham was expected in London on Monday to meet MPs. Zubir Ahmed, the Glasgow South West MP who resigned as a health minister alongside Streeting, said cabinet members had a duty to be “as honest and explicit to the prime minister, to his face, as they are privately.”
Farage said he was “disappointed.” The result, he said, followed the same logic as Reform’s own campaign before the 7 May locals: vote for Burnham, get Starmer out. “We were slightly hoisted with our own petard,” he said.
What follows
Labour must now replace Burnham as a mayoral candidate. The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election is set for 30 July, and the party will name its candidate on 26 June. Bev Craig, leader of Manchester city council, is believed to be Burnham’s pick.
Sources
- Burnham calls for ‘new path for Britain’ as Starmer vows to fight any leadership challenge – as it happened
- EXPLAINER-Why is Burnham unwinding the UK's 'triple lock' state pension pledge? | International
