Bulgaria was due at the polls on June 9, 2024, for the sixth parliamentary election in three years. Polls going in pointed to the same man who has run the country before: Boyko Borisov.
His GERB party, running with its partner the United Democratic Forces, sat at 25 percent, ahead of every rival. Borisov has headed three governments in the past decade. His standing has slipped since then, with allegations of corruption, ties to oligarchs and attacks on media freedom following him around.
A coalition that did not last
The previous arrangement was an odd one. After the vote in April of the previous year, the reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria bloc (PP-DB) and GERB agreed to share an 18-month government with a rotating prime minister. Nikolay Denkov of PP-DB would go first. After nine months, Maria Gabriel of GERB would take over.
Denkov resigned on March 5, as planned. Then the scheme stalled. Gabriel could not assemble a government, and on March 27 Denkov turned down President Rumen Radev’s invitation to try his own hand. The populist There Is Such a People party passed on a try the next day, March 28. That left the June vote as the only way out.
Radev had appointed a caretaker cabinet under Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev, and parliament swore it in on April 9. Radev also announced the snap election for June 9.
PP-DB had been polling around 15 percent, a steep fall from the 24.6 percent it took last time. Many of its voters were expected to walk away over the party’s earlier deal with GERB. The two sides had once agreed on a pro-EU line, including support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, but a repeat coalition looked unlikely.
The sticking point was the judiciary and the security services. PP-DB wanted reform of both, arguing they shield organized crime and have done too little against Russian influence. GERB says it backs reform in general. It has not started any specific changes in either area.
The Peevski factor
GERB has also leaned on Delyan Peevski, who leads the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS). The United States has sanctioned him for corruption under the Magnitsky Act. He is a former media mogul, described as pro-Ukrainian, and reportedly one of the wealthiest people in Bulgaria.
PP-DB treats GERB and DPS as a single bloc. Denkov put it bluntly: “Anytime we had a meeting with Borisov, Peevski was already in the room.”
If GERB needed a partner, the MRF, which draws on Bulgaria’s Turkish minority, was one option. It polled at about 15 percent too. The pro-Russian Revival party (Vazrazhdane) also had a following. And if Borisov failed to put a cabinet together, observers expected a seventh election in three years.
Same day as the European vote
Bulgaria’s ballot coincided with elections to the European Parliament. Between June 6 and June 9, voters in all 27 EU member states were choosing 720 MEPs. Seats are shared out by population, and the vote happens every five years. Voters pick national parties, and the MEPs then sort themselves into groups by ideology.
Polls ahead of the European contest placed a center-right pairing, GERB and the Union of Democratic Forces, first in Bulgaria.
