On June 23, 2016, Britain voted to leave the European Union by 52% to 48%. The result sent the pound tumbling, knocked the FTSE 100 lower, and forced David Cameron, the prime minister who had called the vote, to resign.
A decade on, the promises of the Leave campaign have largely failed to materialise. Britain’s economy is smaller than forecasters once expected, and net migration has risen rather than fallen.
Stanford academic Nicholas Bloom has estimated that by 2025 Brexit had cut the UK’s GDP by 6-8%, a loss he links to prolonged uncertainty and diverted investment. Sterling still trades roughly 10% below its June 2016 level, having averaged €1.16 against the euro since the vote, versus €1.27 over the decade before it.
Immigration followed the opposite path to the one the campaign pledged. Net migration from the EU turned negative in 2022, but arrivals from non-EU countries surged amid worker shortages and student growth.
Trade with the bloc, Britain’s largest partner, remained intact under a deal signed on Jan. 1, 2021, with the EU taking 41% of UK exports and 50% of imports in 2025. Politically, no prime minister since the vote has lasted a full term; one served just 49 days. Keir Starmer’s resignation cleared the way for a seventh prime minister in ten years.
Sources
- Ten years of Brexit: The UK's economic record | Roland Berger
- Brexit 10 years later: How the UK economy and politics changed, in charts | CNBC Africa
