Botswana sits on the world’s second-largest diamond reserves after Russia. This week its voters went to the polls with diamond sales in a slump and a drought wearing on the country.
Up to 1 million eligible voters were expected to take part in Wednesday’s general election. They chose 61 members of the National Assembly and 609 local council seats across 16 local authorities. Voters do not pick the president directly. The leader of the party that ends the count with the most seats takes the job for five years.
A diamond economy under strain
Diamonds brought Botswana from low-income to middle-income status in the 1970s, and they still make up 80 percent of its exports. Per-capita GDP is pegged at $7,250, among the highest in Africa. Yet the country ships its stones raw and unprocessed, so it has little cushion when prices fall. Cheaper lab-grown diamonds are eating into demand in markets like China and the United States.
Debswana, which Botswana owns jointly with De Beers, saw sales fall by 47 percent in the first half of 2024. Mining supply chains fear mass layoffs. Unemployment stands at 27 percent, and inflation is hitting households hard.
Drought adds to the pressure. Botswana declared a state of emergency in July 2023, and cereal output in the 2022-2023 season met just 23 percent of national need. According to the UN’s OCHA, more than 10 percent of the population is in chronic food insecurity.
Who is running
The Botswana Democratic Party has led every election since 1969. It won 38 of 57 seats in 2019. President Masisi, 63, is seeking one more term, and his incumbency and the party’s 58 years in power make him the favorite. But the party is fraying. Masisi was handpicked by predecessor Ian Khama in 2018, and the two later fell out. Khama accused his successor of betrayal for reversing policies such as the ban on trophy hunting and for decriminalizing homosexuality. Khama left the BDP with loyalists and formed the Botswana Patriotic Front, which has four members in parliament. He came back from three years of self-imposed exile in South Africa this September to back it, and appeared in court on gun possession and money laundering charges.
Masisi has also won praise and criticism. Last July he renegotiated a deal with De Beers that raised Botswana’s share of rough diamonds from their joint venture by 100 percent. In April he threatened to send 20,000 elephants to Germany over its attempt to ban trophy imports.
Boko, a 54-year-old lawyer, leads the Umbrella for Democratic Change, an opposition coalition that took second place in 2019 with 15 seats. It promises better-paid jobs for young people and government stipends. Some local analysts think the result could be too close to call, though many disagree. Saleshando, 53, heads the Botswana Congress Party, which has won between 10 and 20 percent in past votes. The party pledges an average monthly living wage of 4,000 pula ($299) by 2029, up from 1,500 pula ($112).
Fear of unrest
Power has changed hands peacefully at every election since independence from Britain in the 1960s. This time some Batswana worry about violence afterward. “Unlike in the past, there is increased political competition,” said election observer Tendai Mbanje of the African Centre for Governance Election Observation, who also pointed to tensions in the country.
Mbanje does not expect bloodshed. “The elections will be a tight contest but there are no expectations of a violent election,” he said.
