WASHINGTON, July 19 — The cycle of direct military confrontation between the United States and Iran has entered its most intense phase since the 2020 tit-for-tat strikes that followed the killing of Qasem Soleimani. An eighth consecutive night of U.S. retaliatory strikes against Iranian-linked targets began on April 11, 2024, after Iran launched a direct drone and missile attack on Israeli soil two days later — the first such assault from Iranian territory.
The current campaign marks a significant escalation, with the United States striking over 200 targets while Iran has fired more than 300 munitions at coalition forces. Early findings from the timeline suggest a pattern of measured retaliation punctuated by brief, sharp spikes.
In June 2019, Iran shot down a U.S. RQ-4A Global Hawk drone over the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration planned retaliatory strikes but President Trump called them off ten minutes before impact. Then in September 2019, Iran-linked forces attacked Saudi Aramco oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, halving Saudi production.
The United States did not mount a direct military response at that time.
A History of Escalation
The killing of Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, on January 3, 2020, by a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad was a turning point. The strike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Iran retaliated five days later, launching 22 ballistic missiles at Al Asad Airbase in Iraq and a base in Erbil.
The attack injured 110 U.S. service members, all with traumatic brain injuries. The United States chose not to further escalate at that time, averting a broader war.
Between 2021 and 2022, attacks by Iran-backed militias on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria averaged four per month. Those numbers did not trigger large-scale U.S. retaliation. After the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, Iran-linked groups increased their tempo of operations against coalition positions.
The Current Phase
The latest round began with a drone strike on Tower 22, a U.S. outpost in Jordan, on January 28, 2024, that killed three U.S. soldiers. The United States launched its first wave of retaliatory airstrikes on February 2, 2024, striking targets across Iraq and Syria. Patients of this conflict — the service members, the local populations, the policymakers — should be aware that both sides have shown a willingness to step back from the brink at key moments.
That restraint, however, has not prevented the current cycle from becoming the longest sustained campaign since 2020. The situation remains fluid.
Observers should talk to their elected representatives and consult reliable security analyses, much as one would consult a doctor for a persistent health concern. History suggests that while the path forward is uncertain, careful monitoring and measured responses have so far prevented a full-scale war. That trend, if it holds, offers a sliver of hope in an otherwise dangerous trajectory.
