Economists put Britain’s economy somewhere between 4% and 8% smaller than it would have been had it stayed in the European Union. Ten years after the June 23, 2016 referendum, in which about 52%, or 17 million, voters chose to leave, that is the figure the argument keeps coming back to.
“Brexit has made the UK economy smaller than it otherwise would have been,” said Jonathan Portes, a professor at King’s College London. He described the damage not as a sudden collapse but as “a gradual and cumulative drag on trade, investment and productivity.” Leave campaigners had famously promised an extra £350 million a week for the National Health Service. Supporters of Brexit reply that such verdicts are premature and that short-term pain was always the cost of taking back control.
The economic record
Official estimates from the Office for National Statistics suggest GDP per capita could be up to 8% higher had Britain remained in the EU, according to an analysis from the consultancy Roland Berger. Annual GDP growth has dropped from roughly 1.5% a year to about 0.9%, below the current EU average. Household consumption has weakened most. It once added 1.1 percentage points to average growth and now adds 0.3.
Exports tell a mixed story. Goods sold to the EU are down around 14% in real terms compared with 2019. Sales to the rest of the world have not made up the gap: after a catch-up in 2021 and 2022, volumes to non-EU markets have been flat to falling, even with new trade agreements signed. Services did better. The ONS reports that telecommunication and intellectual property exports more than doubled since 2022, though Roland Berger credits global trends rather than Brexit.
The trade deal with the EU kept tariffs off most goods. Exporters still deal with customs declarations, rules-of-origin requirements and extra paperwork, and almost half of British goods exports go to the EU. The pound fell 8% against the dollar and 6% against the euro after the vote, its sharpest one-day drop since 1971, and has not fully recovered. A weaker currency barely helped exporters.
Productivity lags too. In 2025 an hour of work produced almost USD 100 of output in the United States, around USD 94 in the DACH economies and USD 79.50 in the UK. The Office for Budget Responsibility expects Brexit to cut long-run productivity by around 4%. Against that, the UK saves an estimated GBP 9–11 billion a year in contributions to the EU budget, which Roland Berger says does not cover the costs.
Migration
Ending free movement sat at the center of the “take back control” pitch. Results are mixed. Arrivals from EU countries fell sharply, but arrivals from outside Europe rose, partly because the previous Conservative government changed visa rules to fill labor shortages in areas such as elder care. Net migration hit 944,000 in 2023, then fell to 171,000 the following year.
Public anger has centered on small boats crossing the English Channel, often carrying people from places such as Afghanistan and Sudan. Crossings peaked at 46,000 in 2022 and reached 41,000 the next year. They are a small share of total migration, but protests outside hotels housing asylum seekers have turned violent in some cases.
Politics and opinion
The Conservatives lost power in 2024 after 14 years of infighting over Europe. Labour has fared little better, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer was reported to be close to stepping down. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has led opinion polls for over a year.
Opinion has turned. Ipsos polling found 52% would now back rejoining the EU and 33% would oppose it, and nearly half of respondents think Brexit has gone worse than expected. YouGov surveys put support for Brexit at around 30%, its lowest since the vote. Roland Berger estimates 3.2 million Leave voters have died since 2016, while about four million, nearly three in ten of those who backed Leave, say they would vote differently now.
Andy Burnham, who succeeded Starmer, won a special election against a Reform challenger in a strongly pro-Brexit constituency. He has kept his distance from rejoining. “I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU,” he said. “I respect the decision that was made at the referendum.” Labour has ruled out both reversing Brexit and rejoining the single market. Starmer had been pursuing a “reset” with Brussels aimed at easing trade friction.
Not one of the five prime ministers since David Cameron resigned after the vote has served a full term.
Sources
- Ten years after Brexit vote, Britain is still wrestling with the fallout
- Ten years of Brexit: The UK's economic record
