“One Nation has reached the end of its beginning. We’re going through the ceiling from here.” David Farley said that to a roaring room on Saturday night after winning the Farrer by-election in southern NSW. The result ended 77 years of Coalition hold on the federal seat and gave One Nation its first win in a federal lower-house election since Pauline Hanson founded it in 1997.
With more than 80 per cent of ballots counted, Farley held more than 57 per cent of the two-candidate-preferred vote against independent Michelle Milthorpe. The ABC called the race at around 8pm. An hour later, with 82 of 94 polling places reporting, the Australian Electoral Commission showed a 34.76 swing to One Nation and a 31.23 swing against the Liberals, who had held Farrer since 2001.
Milthorpe, a Climate-200-funded independent, and Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski both conceded by 8:30pm. Soon after, Sussan Ley, the outgoing MP and former Opposition leader, put out a message of congratulations. “Serving the people of Farrer for 25 years, having been endorsed by locals at nine elections, was the privilege of my professional life,” she said. Ley had announced her resignation after losing a leadership contest to Angus Taylor in February.
Hanson had a warning for the rest of parliament. “We’re coming after those other seats,” she said.
Where the votes came from
Writing in Pearls and Irritations, John Menadue’s site, one commentator called the Liberal result impossible to overstate. In a little over 12 months, he said, more than half of the people who voted Liberal with Ley on the ticket had moved to One Nation or an independent. Farley took more than 40 per cent on first preferences. The same author put the combined Liberal and National vote at about 21 per cent. One Nation had managed 6.6 per cent in Farrer in 2025.
Preferences added a twist. Both Coalition parties told voters to rank One Nation above Milthorpe, and Farley was tipped to win because of it. The commentary estimated only about 60 per cent of Coalition voters followed that card.
Barnaby Joyce, the party’s only other lower-house presence, was not elected under the One Nation banner. He joined after defecting from the Nationals late last year. He said the shock would travel. “Australians, they hear the rumble coming from the bush and then it arrives in the city as a bushfire.”
A pattern from March
Analysts had been watching for exactly this. In South Australia’s state election in March, Labor won in a landslide with 37.5 per cent of the primary vote on the ABC’s tally. One Nation came second with 22.9 per cent, ahead of the Liberals on 18.9 per cent. National polls have put One Nation in the mid-20s, with a few readings at 27 per cent and one at 28 per cent.
Nationals leader Matt Canavan, who campaigned in Farrer for weeks, said before the vote that “there’s no doubt people want to give the political class a kick, and this is a bit of a free kick.”
Looking ahead, the Menadue piece pointed to the Victorian state election later this year, where it said a One Nation surge could cost the Liberals the most.
Sources
- 'Western Sydney here we come': One Nation eyes more seats after by-election win
- One Nationâs win in Farrer leaves Liberals on the brink
