For the first time since 2010, Labour has emerged as the leading party in Scotland. The July 4, 2024 general election saw Labour capture 37 of the 57 Scottish constituencies, a net gain of 36 seats from the previous contest.
The result marks a dramatic reversal of the political order that has defined Scottish representation at Westminster for over a decade. The Scottish National Party suffered its worst performance since 2010, the very year Labour last held the top spot. The SNP’s seat count collapsed from 48 to just nine, a loss of 39 seats.
The party that once dominated Scottish general elections now finds its Westminster presence drastically reduced. Voter turnout fell sharply across Scotland.
Only 59% of registered voters cast a ballot, a decline of 8.4 percentage points from 2019. In several constituencies, the drop exceeded 10%. For the first time, turnout in the Scottish Parliament election—recorded at 63.5%—surpassed turnout for a UK general election.
This inversion signals a growing disconnect between Scottish voters and the Westminster process. The Liberal Democrats made modest gains, increasing their Scottish representation from four seats to six.
The Conservatives lost one seat, leaving them with five. While the Conservative decline is less severe than the SNP’s collapse, it still represents a net loss for the party. Labour’s resurgence gives the new UK government a substantial bloc of 37 Scottish MPs in the House of Commons.
This strengthens the voice of Scottish interests within the governing party. Conversely, the SNP’s reduced numbers weaken the parliamentary platform for advancing the case for Scottish independence, altering the political dynamic in both Westminster and Edinburgh.
The low turnout rate raises concerns about democratic engagement. With fewer than six in ten voters participating, the result cannot be interpreted as a strong mandate for any party. The voters who stayed home influenced the outcome as much as those who voted. Analysts will scrutinize the reasons behind this disengagement, which the report notes are complex and require careful examination.
The SNP’s decline did not occur overnight. Years of internal divisions, frequent leadership changes, and a sustained focus on independence at the expense of day-to-day governance eroded the party’s support.
Labour, meanwhile, rebuilt its grassroots organization in Scotland. The result is a reversal of fortunes that few anticipated would be so complete: Labour went from one seat to 37, while the SNP fell from 48 to nine. These are not ordinary election swings.
They represent a fundamental shift in Scotland’s political landscape. The new MPs will take their seats, and the government will hold its majority.
But the voters who stayed home remain. Convincing them to return to the polls is the challenge that lies ahead.
