China, 29 February, 2023 : Leaked military files reveal Kremlin’s plans for tactical nuclear weapons use in potential invasions, including by China. The 29 files outline conditions for nuclear use in offensive goals such as containing aggression and making the navy more effective. Despite dating back a decade, experts find them relevant to current Russian military doctrine.
The leaked documents, seen by the Financial Times, describe a lower threshold for tactical nuclear weapons use than publicly admitted. Alexander Gabuev from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center notes a low operational threshold if conventional means fail.
A spokesperson for President Putin challenges the authenticity of the documents, as reported by the FT. One scenario involves China invading Russia, prompting Moscow to deploy tactical nukes in a first-strike decision. “In one war game scenario, China pays fake protesters to clash with police in Russia’s Far East, then sends saboteurs to attack Russian security infrastructure.
Once tensions peak, China accuses Russia of ‘genocide,’” the FT reports. Separate reports suggest Putin might use chemical weapons on German cities in a NATO war.
The Bundestag issues a briefing paper outlining a worst-case scenario with chemical attacks and increased nuclear threats from Moscow. The revelation of the Kremlin’s tactical nuclear plans comes at a time of heightened tensions between nations, where the threat of military conflict and the use of nuclear weapons has become a pressing concern globally. The international community has long been aware of the devastating consequences of nuclear warfare, and the potential for such scenarios to unfold has significant implications for global security and stability.
As major world powers, Russia and China have substantial military capabilities, including nuclear arsenals, which they maintain as deterrents against potential aggressors. The concept of tactical nuclear weapons use is particularly alarming due to the potential for rapid escalation of conflicts. Tactical nuclear weapons are designed for use on the battlefield, as opposed to strategic nuclear weapons, which are intended for deterrent purposes.
The use of tactical nuclear weapons could lead to significant loss of life and long-term environmental damage, making them a highly controversial aspect of modern military doctrine. The fact that the leaked documents suggest a lower threshold for their use than previously acknowledged raises questions about the Kremlin’s willingness to engage in nuclear conflict.
The geopolitical context in which these plans have been revealed is also noteworthy. Relations between Russia and China have been complex, with both countries cooperating on certain issues while competing in others. The scenario outlined in the leaked documents, involving China invading Russia, highlights the potential for miscalculation or unforeseen events to lead to a major conflict.
Similarly, the mention of potential chemical weapons use by Russia against German cities in a NATO war underscores the broad range of threats that European nations face in the current security environment. The authenticity of the leaked documents, challenged by a spokesperson for President Putin, is a critical factor in evaluating the significance of these revelations.
If verified, the documents would provide valuable insight into the Kremlin’s military thinking and planning, particularly regarding the use of nuclear weapons. Experts find the documents relevant to current Russian military doctrine, despite dating back a decade. This continuity in military planning underscores the need for ongoing vigilance and diplomatic efforts to prevent the escalation of conflicts and to reinforce international norms against the use of nuclear and chemical weapons.
