WASHINGTON, July 9 — $700 million. That is the figure that matters. That is the annual budget the Quds Force, the overseas arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, allocates for operations abroad, according to a 2023 report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
The same report designated Iran as the top state sponsor of terrorism. The July 2024 alleged plot against former President Donald Trump fits squarely inside that pattern of state-directed threats.
The U.S. Department of Justice has been tracking Iranian assassination plots since at least 2020. By the numbers, the case load is mounting. In August 2022, prosecutors charged Shahram Poursafi, an IRGC member, with plotting to murder former national security adviser John Bolton.
In January 2023, a federal indictment unsealed in New York revealed an Iranian plot to kill former President Donald Trump, though no charges were filed in that instance. In March 2023, the DOJ announced charges against three individuals for plotting to assassinate an Iranian-American journalist in New York.
The July 2024 alleged plot adds to that string.
The Bolton case set the template
Shahram Poursafi, the IRGC member charged in August 2022, was accused of trying to arrange the murder of John Bolton, likely in retaliation for the 2020 U.S. drone strike that killed Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani. The Justice Department alleged Poursafi offered $300,000 to someone in the United States to carry out the killing. That case remains open.
Investors and security analysts tracking geopolitical risk will note that the Bolton plot was not an isolated incident — it was the opening move in a series of DOJ actions that now spans multiple years and multiple targets. The January 2023 indictment unsealed in New York laid out a separate Iranian plot to kill former President Donald Trump.
Federal prosecutors did not file charges in that case, but the indictment itself served as a public warning. The bottom line: Iran’s Quds Force has been actively targeting current and former U.S. officials on American soil. Then came March 2023.
The DOJ announced charges against three individuals for plotting to assassinate an Iranian-American journalist in New York. The Justice Department did not name the journalist in its public filings, citing safety concerns.
The three defendants were accused of working on behalf of Iranian intelligence. That case is proceeding through federal court.
The July 2024 alleged plot
The July 2024 alleged plot against former President Donald Trump represents the most recent iteration of this pattern. The Justice Department has not released full details of the operation, but the charge sheet follows the same structure as the earlier cases: Iranian operatives, U.S.-based targets, and the Quds Force budget of roughly $700 million per year making such operations possible. By the numbers, the DOJ has now charged or indicted individuals in connection with at least four separate Iranian assassination plots since 2020.
The targets include a former national security adviser, a former president, and a journalist. The common thread is the IRGC’s Quds Force, which the Office of the Director of National Intelligence identified in 2023 as the primary vehicle for Iran’s overseas terrorist operations.
The figure that matters for anyone tracking this story is the $700 million. That is the annual budget the Quds Force has to work with. That money funds operatives, logistics, and payments to local assets in countries around the world.
The DOJ cases show that the United States is a target, and that Iranian intelligence has been willing to attempt operations inside American borders.
What to watch next
The July 2024 case is still in its early stages. The Justice Department will likely unseal additional details as the investigation progresses. Investors and security analysts will be watching for any indication that the Quds Force has shifted tactics or expanded its target list.
The 2023 ODNI report made clear that Iran views the United States as a primary adversary and that the $700 million budget is not shrinking. The bottom line: the DOJ has documented a sustained campaign by Iran’s Quds Force to assassinate current and former U.S. officials and journalists.
The July 2024 alleged plot against former President Donald Trump is the latest data point in that campaign. The pattern is established. The question now is whether the Justice Department can disrupt the next plot before it reaches the indictment stage.
