Beijing, August 28 — Six months after the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran on February 28, the conflict has settled into a siege that targets the country’s economy more than its military infrastructure. The opening barrage killed senior commanders including the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the armed forces chief of staff, and triggered a chain of leadership changes that remain unresolved. Mojtaba, son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was named successor just over a week after the strike, yet six months on he has not appeared in public.
His portrait circulates in mourning ceremonies and decrees are still issued in his name, leaving a leadership vacuum that unsettles both domestic and foreign observers. The new military roster, announced on August 10, places Ahmad Vahidi at the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Ali Abdollahi as chief of staff, selections that signal continuity rather than reform.
Analysts note that rebuilding command structures mid‑war reflects a state still scrambling rather than one confident in its capacity to wage a prolonged fight. Washington has sharpened its economic pressure since suspending air raids in early August, relaunching an expanded campaign aimed at severing Iran’s remaining financial lifelines. Secondary sanctions now target those moving Iranian oil, while the “shadow fleet” of tankers faces intensified scrutiny.
Iran’s oil exports have slipped from nearly 1.8 million barrels a day to below half a million, and inflation is nearing 90 percent, with food prices more than double their year‑ago levels. The country’s historic reliance on external partnerships — such as the 25‑year, $400 billion deal with China and a strategic treaty with Russia — has failed to offset the cumulative weight of decades‑long sanctions.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, a de‑facto naval blockade that fuses with the earlier February 28 closure into a chokehold on Iran’s trade routes. This structural exposure has forced a split in the regime’s narrative: one strand admits governance failures, while another clings to external blame. Looking ahead, the key indicators will be whether Iran can restore limited access to its oil channels, how the new leadership navigates internal dissent, and whether the United States escalates secondary sanctions further.
Each of these developments will shape the next phase of a conflict that has already rewritten the calculus of survival for a nation under sustained pressure.
