BOGOTA — The man who will soon occupy Colombia’s Casa de Nariño ran on a platform of tearing down what his predecessor built. Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right millionaire endorsed by U.S. President Donald Trump, defeated left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda by a razor-thin margin in Sunday’s presidential election. The preliminary results signal a sharp reversal of the policies pursued under outgoing President Gustavo Petro.
Petro, a former guerrilla and the country’s first leftist president, spent his term trying to shrink Colombia’s vast inequality. He opened peace talks with armed groups.
He severed diplomatic ties with Israel over its military campaign in Gaza and banned Colombian coal exports to that country. De la Espriella has promised to undo much of that. The vote count was close.
Very close. That narrow margin tells a story of its own: Colombia is a nation split down the middle.
Half the electorate chose a leftist senator backed by Petro. The other half chose a businessman who campaigned on rolling back social programs and reasserting conservative values. The result is a mandate, but a fragile one.
De la Espriella’s victory did not come from nowhere. He rode a wave of discontent with Petro’s governance, which struggled with inflation and a stalled economy. The far-right candidate positioned himself as the antidote to what he called Petro’s failed experiment.
Trump’s endorsement gave him international legitimacy and a direct line to Washington. Investors, who had grown wary of Petro’s nationalization talk and tax hikes, are expected to welcome de la Espriella’s pro-business stance.
But the election also exposed deep fractures. Petro’s base remains loyal and organized. Cepeda, the challenger, ran a campaign that echoed Petro’s focus on land reform and social spending.
That message resonated in rural areas and among the urban poor. De la Espriella’s strength lay in cities and among the middle and upper classes, where voters feared a slide into Venezuela-style socialism.
Foreign policy will shift fast. Petro’s break with Israel was a signature move, driven by his condemnation of the Gaza war. De la Espriella has signaled he will restore full diplomatic relations and lift the coal export ban.
That will please Israel and likely the United States, which backed de la Espriella openly. Relations with neighboring leftist governments in Venezuela and Bolivia, already strained under Petro, could worsen further. Domestically, the new administration faces a hostile Congress.
Petro’s coalition still holds seats. De la Espriella will need to negotiate or govern by decree, a tactic that risks street protests and legal challenges.
The peace talks with armed groups, which Petro treated as a centerpiece, are almost certain to be abandoned or radically restructured. De la Espriella has called for a military-first approach. The economy is the other big question.
Petro tried to raise taxes on the wealthy and expand state control over energy. De la Espriella wants the opposite: tax cuts, deregulation, and private investment in oil and coal.
Colombia’s peso has already strengthened on the news. But the new president inherits a budget deficit and a central bank wary of inflation. What happens next is uncertain.
A sharp rise in tensions is expected as de la Espriella’s administration begins implementing its policies. The electorate is not united behind him. The margin of victory was too thin for that.
He won the presidency, but not the country’s trust. That will have to be earned — or imposed.
