KYIV, July 11 — The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to shape the strategic calculations of both Moscow and the Western alliance, with the conflict’s trajectory defined by territorial stalemate and an escalating war of attrition. The record shows that Russian forces launched their multi-front attack on February 24, 2022, advancing from Russia, Belarus, and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. By April 2022, Russian troops had seized significant territory across eastern and southern Ukraine.
The city of Mariupol fell in May 2022 after a protracted siege. Kherson was captured in March 2022 but liberated by Ukrainian forces in November of that year.
Large portions of the Donbas region remain under Russian occupation. According to official assessments, as of March 2025, Russia controls approximately 18% of Ukrainian territory. This figure includes the Crimean Peninsula, annexed in March 2014, as well as parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts — areas where conflict has simmered since 2014.
Key battles have defined the war’s phases. The Battle of Kyiv, fought from February to April 2022, ended with the withdrawal of Russian forces from the capital region.
The grinding Battle of Bakhmut stretched from August 2022 to May 2023, resulting in a Russian victory at immense cost. Ukrainian forces mounted successful counteroffensives in the Kharkiv region in September 2022 and in the Kherson region from August to November 2022, retaking substantial ground.
Casualties and the cost of war
The human toll of the conflict is stark. According to U.S. intelligence estimates from early 2025, the war has resulted in an estimated 500,000 military casualties — killed and wounded — on both sides combined. Civilian casualties are estimated at over 30,000, and the conflict has displaced millions of people from their homes.
These figures underscore the intensity of the fighting, which has seen little respite since the initial invasion. Ukraine’s ability to resist has been heavily underwritten by Western military assistance.
Since 2022, Ukraine has received over $100 billion in military aid from the United States and its allies. This support has flowed through established mechanisms, including the U.S. Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which was established in 2014, and the European Peace Facility, created in 2021. The sustained inflow of weaponry, ammunition, and intelligence has been a critical factor in Ukraine’s capacity to hold defensive lines and conduct offensive operations.
Strategic context and economic pressure
The economic dimensions of the war are equally significant. According to the source material, Russia’s military operations cost an estimated $100 billion per year. This figure places a substantial burden on the Russian state budget, even as the Kremlin has sought to retool its economy for wartime production.
The proposed tariffs, referenced in the briefing materials, are intended to reduce Russia’s ability to fund its military operations by targeting its revenue streams. Western policymakers have consistently argued that economic pressure is a necessary complement to military aid.
By constraining Moscow’s fiscal capacity, the logic runs, the West can shorten the conflict and reduce the long-term threat to European security. The effectiveness of this approach remains a subject of debate among analysts, but the numbers involved — over $100 billion in aid to Ukraine versus Russia’s $100 billion annual war cost — illustrate the scale of the financial contest. For Ukraine, the challenge is not only to defend its territory but to sustain a functioning state under conditions of total war.
The country has relied on a combination of domestic mobilization, Western financial support, and the resilience of its civilian infrastructure. The displacement of millions has created a humanitarian crisis that continues to strain resources across Europe.
What to watch next
As the conflict continues, several factors will shape its course. The ability of Ukraine to maintain the flow of Western military aid, the capacity of Russia to sustain its casualty rates and economic costs, and the political will of both sides to pursue a negotiated settlement all remain in play. The territorial lines drawn by the fighting — with roughly 18% of Ukraine under Russian control — are likely to be a central issue in any future talks.
Officials on both sides have signaled little appetite for compromise in public statements. The record of the war so far, from the Battle of Kyiv to the liberation of Kherson, suggests that territorial gains have been hard-won and fiercely contested.
The coming months will test whether either side can achieve a decisive advantage on the battlefield or whether the conflict will settle into a protracted frozen war.
