STRASBOURG, September 17 — Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Europe this week to make the case that Canada’s future runs through Brussels, not Washington, and a new national survey suggests Canadian voters have already reached that conclusion ahead of him.
The poll, conducted September 4 to 9 and released September 14 by the polling firm whose release is authored by Sandro Ayrle and David Coletto, found 80 percent of Canadians say the country should deepen strategic cooperation with the European Union on foreign policy, defence, and economic priorities — up six points since the same question was asked in February.
Eighty-one percent back closer integration between Canada and the EU while Canada remains outside the bloc, including making it easier to trade, travel, work and study and to cooperate on security. The trip itself is a two-stop tour of Europe’s institutional core. Carney addresses the European Parliament in Strasbourg, attends European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the European Union address, and meets members of the European Parliament.
He then travels to Liverpool for his first meeting with UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, with defence and security, energy, artificial intelligence, and critical minerals expected on the agenda.
A 50-point gap
Only 21 percent of Canadians now hold a positive impression of the United States, down three points since February, while 75 percent hold a negative one, an increase of six points. The gap between positive impressions of the EU and of the United States now stands at 50 points; the United Kingdom is 53 points ahead of the United States. Views of other partners have moved in the same direction.
Seventy-four percent of Canadians now have a positive impression of the United Kingdom, up eight points, with 15 percent negative, down three. The EU is viewed positively by 71 percent, up five points, with 16 percent negative, unchanged.
Sixty-four percent have a positive impression of Mexico, an increase of ten points, while negative impressions fell four points to 22 percent. Views of China improved somewhat: 36 percent positive, up three points, while 50 percent are negative, up one point. On the question of alignment, 56 percent say Canada has more in common with the countries of the European Union than with the United States, while just 16 percent say Canada has more in common with the United States.
Sixty-one percent believe a closer Canada-EU relationship would increase Canada’s economic independence by improving access to markets and essential supplies without relying too heavily on any one country; only 9 percent think it would reduce that independence. Asked what concerns them more, 39 percent point to Canada continuing to rely too heavily on the United States, while just 16 percent are more concerned that closer ties with the EU could weaken Canada’s relationship with the United States.
Membership divides along party lines
Nearly half of Canadians say they would support Canada becoming a member state of the European Union; another 30 percent are opposed and 21 percent are unsure. Support is up slightly from 48 percent in February and from 46 percent in 2025, while the share who are unsure has fallen from 25 percent in 2025 to 21 percent today. The idea divides Canadians politically.
Sixty-four percent of Liberal voters support EU membership, as do 56 percent of NDP voters and 57 percent of Bloc Québécois voters, while only 33 percent of Conservative voters support it and 51 percent are opposed. Regionally, support is highest in Quebec at 55 percent, followed by British Columbia at 54 percent and Ontario at 51 percent.
Positive impressions of the EU reach 74 percent in British Columbia, 71 percent in Ontario, 77 percent in Quebec, and 62 percent in Atlantic Canada. Even in Alberta, 68 percent have a positive impression of the EU. Among partisans, 85 percent of current Liberal supporters have a positive impression of the EU, as do 79 percent of NDP supporters and 80 percent of Bloc Québécois supporters.
The trip comes amid speculation it could include a significant new announcement about Canada’s relationship with its European partners, and as the federal government frames closer ties with Europe as part of an effort to diversify Canada’s economic and security relationships and reduce vulnerability to an increasingly unpredictable United States. What this signals is a Canadian political class catching up to its own electorate.
The calculus in Ottawa has shifted because the calculus in Canadian living rooms shifted first. Watch Strasbourg this week for whether Carney converts that public appetite into institutional commitments — and watch Moscow, Beijing, and Washington for how they read a middle power openly shopping for new partners.
