MANAMA — The International Maritime Security Construct, the naval coalition established in 2019 to patrol critical shipping lanes in the Middle East, may soon take on a new mission: collecting tolls from vessels transiting the region. The potential expansion comes after a White House announcement that a 20% toll and naval blockade on Iranian oil shipments will take effect May 1, 2025. President Donald Trump made the announcement, though the U.S. Department of Defense has not released operational plans.
The U.S. Fifth Fleet is expected to enforce the blockade by intercepting vessels suspected of carrying Iranian crude. For communities across Asia, particularly in nations that rely heavily on energy imports from the Persian Gulf, the implications are immediate.
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Any disruption there sends ripples through fuel prices from Manila to Mumbai.
Legal and diplomatic fallout
The United Nations Security Council may hold an emergency session over the planned toll. Legal experts point to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees freedom of navigation. The U.S. has not ratified UNCLOS, a fact that complicates any legal challenge.
The European Union and China have called for restraint. Iran’s Foreign Ministry has threatened retaliation, including the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
That would block 20% of global oil supply. Iran’s Parliament, the Majlis, passed a bill in 2023 authorizing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to disrupt shipping if Iranian oil exports are blocked.
Market jitters
Oil markets are expected to remain volatile. Goldman Sachs has forecast a potential 5-10% price spike if the blockade is enforced. For families across the region, the question is what comes next.
A prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would mean higher costs for transport, electricity, and goods — a burden that falls heaviest on developing economies in South and Southeast Asia. The IMSC’s role in any toll collection remains unclear.
The coalition includes naval forces from several nations, but its mandate has traditionally focused on escorting commercial shipping and deterring attacks. Expanding that mission to include revenue collection would mark a significant shift. Watch for the UNSC session and for any movement from the U.S. Fifth Fleet as the May 1 deadline approaches.
Iran’s response, whether diplomatic or military, will shape the security environment for every vessel passing through the Gulf.
