WASHINGTON, July 16 — The figure that matters in Donald Trump’s political comeback is zero: the number of oil exports from Iran his “maximum pressure” campaign aimed to achieve during his first term. By the numbers, the 45th president’s Iran policy was defined by a cascade of escalating actions that began with the May 8, 2018, withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which he called a “horrible one-sided deal.” Trump, born June 14, 1946, in Queens, New York, entered politics as a businessman and reality TV star.
His presidency from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021, saw two distinct phases on Iran. The first was the JCPOA exit.
The second was the reimposition of sanctions in two waves — August and November 2018 — targeting oil exports, banking, and the automotive sector. The bottom line: Trump’s approach was punitive and deliberate. On April 8, 2019, his administration designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.
Then came the January 3, 2020, drone strike in Baghdad that killed Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force. That strike marked a dramatic escalation in the shadow war between Washington and Tehran.
Investors will note that the sanctions regime hit Iran’s oil revenue hard, though the “zero exports” goal was never fully achieved. The banking sanctions also complicated international trade with Iran, pushing the country deeper into economic isolation. Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives, in 2019 and 2021, and acquitted both times by the Senate.
Both acquittals kept him in office through the end of his term. Now running for president again in the 2024 election, Trump’s record on Iran remains a central piece of his foreign policy pitch. He argues that the JCPOA was structurally flawed and that his “maximum pressure” strategy was the correct approach to containing Tehran.
Critics counter that the withdrawal and subsequent sanctions alienated European allies and did not prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program. What to watch next: whether Trump’s 2024 campaign will explicitly promise a return to the same Iran playbook — withdrawal from any future nuclear deal, renewed sanctions, and continued pressure on the IRGC.
The Soleimani strike alone reshaped the security landscape in the Middle East, and a second Trump term would likely see those policies reinstated.
