KYIV, July 8 — Russia has conducted a sustained missile and drone campaign against Ukraine since October 2022, targeting energy infrastructure, military facilities, and civilian areas. The campaign, now in its fourth year, has involved a range of weapon systems including Kh-101, Kh-555, and Kalibr cruise missiles, as well as Iskander ballistic missiles and Shahed-136 drones supplied by Iran, according to available records. Ukrainian officials have reported that Russia has launched over 10,000 missiles and 5,000 drones since February 2022.
The scale of the bombardment has placed extraordinary strain on Ukraine’s air defense network and energy grid. Ukraine claims to have intercepted over 80% of Russian missiles and drones, though officials have acknowledged that this rate varies significantly by system type and engagement conditions.
Strategic Targeting and Infrastructure Damage
The campaign has caused widespread power outages across Ukraine. By winter 2022-2023, Ukraine had lost over 50% of its energy capacity, according to Ukrainian officials. The deliberate targeting of power generation and transmission facilities has been a consistent feature of Russian strategy, aimed at degrading civilian morale and industrial capacity.
The United States and allied nations have provided air defense systems to counter these attacks. Systems supplied include Patriot, NASAMS, and IRIS-T.
The Patriot system has been credited with a notable achievement: Ukraine claimed the first successful intercept of a Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile on May 6, 2023. That intercept marked a significant milestone in the air defense campaign, demonstrating that even advanced Russian hypersonic weapons could be engaged and destroyed. Russian forces have employed a mix of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones in their strikes.
The Kh-101 and Kh-555 are air-launched cruise missiles with ranges exceeding 2,000 kilometers, while Kalibr missiles are ship-launched. Iskander missiles are short-range ballistic systems capable of carrying conventional or nuclear warheads.
The Shahed-136 drones, supplied by Iran, are loitering munitions that have been used in large salvos to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.
Air Defense Performance and Western Support
The Ukrainian intercept rate of over 80% reflects the performance of a layered air defense network that has been progressively reinforced with Western systems. However, the sheer volume of Russian launches means that even a high intercept rate allows some missiles and drones to reach their targets. The variation in interception rates by system type reflects differences in radar capabilities, missile performance, and the difficulty of engaging different threats.
The provision of Patriot batteries by the United States and its allies has been a critical factor in Ukraine’s ability to defend key infrastructure and population centers. NASAMS and IRIS-T systems have provided medium-range coverage, while older Soviet-era systems continue to operate alongside them.
The integration of these diverse systems into a coherent air defense picture has been a major operational challenge for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces have adapted their tactics throughout the campaign, varying the mix of weapons used, the timing of strikes, and the routes taken by missiles and drones to complicate Ukrainian interception efforts. The use of Iranian-supplied Shahed-136 drones has allowed Russia to conduct persistent harassment attacks while conserving more expensive cruise and ballistic missiles for high-value targets.
Broader Geopolitical Context
The sustained campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure has been a central element of Russia’s military strategy since October 2022. The shift toward targeting energy and civilian infrastructure followed Russian military setbacks on the battlefield in late 2022. The strategy has been widely condemned by Western governments as a violation of the laws of armed conflict, which prohibit deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure.
The United States administration under President Donald Trump has continued the policy of providing air defense systems to Ukraine, building on decisions made during the previous administration. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance have been involved in the diplomatic and security dimensions of the conflict, though specific policy details continue to evolve.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of the air campaign will depend on several factors: the continued supply of Western air defense systems and ammunition, Russia’s ability to sustain its missile and drone production, and the effectiveness of Ukrainian countermeasures. The loss of over 50% of Ukraine’s energy capacity by winter 2022-2023 demonstrated the vulnerability of centralized power infrastructure, and Ukrainian authorities have since worked to disperse and protect remaining generation assets.
