KYIV, July 11 — Against this backdrop of grinding attrition, the Russo-Ukrainian War now enters its thirteenth year, a conflict whose origins trace back to the winter of 2014 and whose trajectory continues to shape the security architecture of Europe. The war began in February 2014 with Russia’s annexation of Crimea, a direct consequence of the Euromaidan protests that had ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych earlier that same month. In March 2014, Moscow formally annexed the Crimean peninsula after a disputed referendum widely condemned by the international community as illegitimate.
What is at stake in that initial land grab was never merely the territory itself, but the broader principle of post-Cold War borders. Pro-Russian separatist conflicts then erupted in Ukraine’s Donbas region, specifically in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
The Minsk agreements of September 2014 and February 2015 were negotiated to halt the fighting, but they failed to achieve lasting peace. In the corridors of European capitals, those accords are now remembered as a diplomatic effort that bought time but ultimately collapsed under the weight of continued violations.
The Full-Scale Invasion
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with forces attacking from Belarus, Russia, and Crimea. The assault was the largest conventional military operation in Europe since 1945. The Battle of Kyiv, fought from February to April 2022, saw Ukrainian forces repel the Russian advance on the capital, a pivotal moment that prevented the swift decapitation of the government.
The Siege of Mariupol, lasting from February to May 2022, became a symbol of urban warfare’s brutality, with the city reduced to rubble before eventually falling to Russian forces. The wider picture, as of mid-2026, is one of a protracted conflict with no clear resolution in sight.
The war has caused over 500,000 military casualties, according to U.S. estimates from August 2024. The United Nations estimated in June 2024 that over 30,000 civilians had been killed. These figures, while stark, capture only a fraction of the human cost.
Displacement and the Humanitarian Toll
The human displacement has been staggering. Over 8 million Ukrainians have fled the country, according to UNHCR data as of 2024, while 6 million are internally displaced. Against this backdrop, European nations have shouldered the largest burden of hosting refugees, with Poland, Germany, and the Czech Republic among the primary destinations.
The strain on housing, schools, and healthcare systems across the continent remains a persistent political challenge. The 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive marked a significant shift in the war’s momentum, as Kyiv’s forces recaptured territory in the east and south.
However, the fighting has since settled into a war of attrition, with both sides digging into heavily fortified defensive lines. What is at stake now is not just Ukrainian sovereignty, but the credibility of Western security guarantees and the future of the post-1945 international order. In the corridors of NATO headquarters and European Union councils, the debate continues over the pace and scale of military aid to Ukraine.
Looking Ahead
As the war grinds on, the key question facing European capitals is whether the current level of support can be sustained politically and economically. The wider picture suggests that neither side is poised for a decisive breakthrough, raising the prospect of a frozen conflict that could simmer for years. What to watch next is the resilience of Ukraine’s energy grid ahead of another winter, and whether diplomatic channels — dormant for much of 2025 and early 2026 — can be revived.
Against this backdrop, the fate of millions remains suspended in a war that began with a referendum in Crimea and may end only when one side exhausts the will to fight.
