KYIV, July 15 — The mechanics of the peace process between Ukraine and Russia remain stuck on the same axis: territorial control. Neither side has moved from its maximalist position since the first year of the war, and no breakthrough is expected in the near term. Ukraine’s stated conditions for peace are clear and unchanged.
They demand the complete withdrawal of Russian forces to pre-2014 borders, which includes Crimea, the peninsula Russia annexed in March 2014. This is the baseline Kyiv brings to every conversation.
Russia’s demand is its mirror image. Moscow insists on recognition of its annexation of four Ukrainian regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson — a move it executed in September 2022 that Ukraine and most UN member states reject as illegal. The catch is that neither position leaves room for a middle ground.
The Istanbul moment that wasn’t
Direct talks in Istanbul in March 2022 produced a draft framework. It was not finalized. Those negotiations, held in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion, remain the closest the two sides have come to a written understanding.
Subsequent rounds stalled. The draft from Istanbul is often cited by diplomats as a lost opportunity.
But on closer reading, even that framework required concessions neither capital was ultimately willing to make permanent. The window closed, and neither side has reopened it.
Switzerland’s summit and Zelenskyy’s formula
In June 2024, Switzerland hosted a Global Peace Summit. Ninety-two countries attended. The gathering endorsed Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Russia was not invited. The summit was a diplomatic show of force for Kyiv, but it produced no mechanism for direct negotiations.
The mechanics here are telling: you cannot negotiate a ceasefire with a party you exclude from the room. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has advanced a 10-point ‘Peace Formula’ that covers nuclear safety, food security, and restoration of territorial integrity. It is the framework Ukraine brings to every international forum.
Russia has not engaged with it. Follow the money — or rather, follow the absence of it.
No major power has offered to bankroll the reconstruction of Ukraine on the terms Russia demands. No Western capital is betting on a frozen conflict that leaves Crimea and the four annexed regions under Russian control. The financial incentives all push toward Ukraine’s maximalist position, which is also the position endorsed by the UN majority.
The result is a diplomatic stalemate that has held since 2022. Both sides have the leverage to block the other’s terms but not the power to impose their own. The next move — if there is one — will require one side to break its own red line.
On current evidence, neither is ready.
