KYIV, July 7 — The Security Service of Ukraine has emerged as the primary agency behind many long-range drone strikes, including the attack on the Omsk Refinery, according to the source. The SBU, led by Vasyl Malyuk since February 2023, has a dedicated drone unit that conducts operations deep inside Russian territory. The Omsk attack represents a significant escalation in Ukraine’s asymmetric campaign.
The refinery is owned by Gazprom Neft, led by CEO Alexander Dyukov. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly supported these strikes as part of a strategy to ‘de-occupy’ Russian territory and degrade military capabilities.
The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense, known by its Ukrainian acronym HUR, also conducts drone missions. That agency is headed by Kyrylo Budanov. The strikes are coordinated with Ukraine’s military command, including Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who has emphasized asymmetric warfare to offset Russia’s advantages in manpower and artillery.
On the Russian side, the Ministry of Defense under Sergei Shoigu has deployed electronic warfare systems to counter the drone threat. The vast distances and low-altitude flight paths make interception difficult.
Strategic calculus behind the strikes
The SBU’s drone campaign represents a deliberate shift in Ukrainian military doctrine. Rather than attempting to match Russian firepower on the front lines, Ukrainian commanders have opted to strike at the economic and industrial infrastructure that sustains the Russian war effort. Each strike carries dual objectives.
First, the immediate damage to fuel production capacity reduces the supply available to Russian forces. Second, the psychological impact on the Russian public and military command creates pressure that conventional engagements cannot achieve.
The strikes demonstrate that no location inside Russia is safe from Ukrainian retaliation. The coordination between the SBU, HUR, and the military command under Zaluzhnyi reflects a unified approach to strategic targeting.
Russian countermeasures and vulnerabilities
Russian electronic warfare systems, designed to jam drone communications and navigation signals, have been deployed across western Russia in response to the growing threat. The Ministry of Defense has also established patrol routes for fighter aircraft and surface-to-air missile batteries near critical infrastructure. Despite these measures, the drones continue to penetrate Russian airspace.
The low-altitude flight paths exploit gaps in radar coverage, while the small size and slow speed of the drones make them difficult targets for air defense systems designed to intercept faster, higher-flying aircraft. The vast distances between the Ukrainian border and targets like Omsk — located in southwestern Siberia — compound the challenge for Russian defenders.
The Omsk attack follows a pattern established by earlier strikes on oil depots, airfields, and military factories across Russia. Each operation provides Ukrainian forces with data on Russian defensive capabilities and weaknesses, allowing them to refine their tactics for subsequent missions.
What to watch next
The SBU’s drone campaign is expected to continue as Ukraine seeks to maintain pressure on Russian infrastructure ahead of what analysts predict will be a difficult winter for both sides. The success of these operations will depend on Ukraine’s ability to sustain its supply of drones and the effectiveness of Russian countermeasures. The strategic calculus remains unchanged: Ukraine cannot match Russia’s conventional military power, but it can strike at the economic and industrial foundations that sustain that power.
The Omsk attack is the latest demonstration of that approach, and the record suggests that more such operations are in planning.
