WASHINGTON, July 6 — As the presumptive 2024 Republican nominee, Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House is already reshaping calculations on both NATO’s future and Western support for Ukraine. The former president’s track record, from threatening to leave the alliance to freezing military aid to Kyiv, provides a detailed blueprint of what a second Trump term might mean for transatlantic security. Under the hood of Trump’s relationship with NATO lies a consistent pressure campaign.
During his 2017-2021 presidency, Trump repeatedly pushed allies to meet the 2% of GDP defence spending target, and in 2018 he reportedly considered withdrawing from the alliance entirely. On Ukraine, the detail that matters is Trump’s direct intervention in military aid.
In 2019, he was impeached for pressuring President Zelensky to investigate Joe Biden, leading to a temporary freeze on assistance. That pattern has continued: as the 2024 campaign has progressed, Trump has opposed additional aid packages for Ukraine, and his stance has influenced Republican opposition in Congress. As ever, the question is what comes next.
In 2023, Trump claimed he could end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours if reelected. His allies have since proposed a ‘peace plan’ that would involve Ukraine ceding territory.
The implications for NATO’s unity are significant. Trump’s history of criticising the alliance and his transactional approach to burden-sharing have left European members uncertain about US reliability. For now, the Ukrainian government is watching closely.
The freeze on military aid during Trump’s first term was temporary, but the signal it sent — that US support could be conditional on domestic political calculations — has not been forgotten. With Trump leading the Republican ticket, the next administration’s approach to both NATO and Ukraine will be one of the defining questions of the 2024 election.
