Ukraine’s struggle for sovereignty is rooted in centuries of contestation by outside powers. As the second-largest nation in Europe, it emerged as an early center of Slavic culture under Kievan Rus’ starting in the ninth century, then fell under the rule of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Russian Empire.
After the 1917 Russian Revolution, a short-lived republic formed before the territory became a constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922. A human-made famine during the 1930s killed millions, and World War II brought German occupation and massive civilian losses. Ukraine gained independence in 1991 as the Soviet Union collapsed, and it began a transition toward liberal democracy and a free market—a path complicated by systemic corruption.
Political shifts such as the Orange Revolution of 2004 and the Euromaidan protests of 2014 drove further changes. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and invaded the Donbas region.
The full-scale invasion that began on February 24, 2022, plunged the country into its most existential crisis in decades.
Wartime Leadership Forged in Crisis
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took office on May 20, 2019, elected on an anti-corruption platform. Born January 25, 1978, in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, he came to office with a background as a comedian and actor, a profile that proved an asset in his campaign promising to clean up a system long riddled with graft. The full-scale Russian invasion transformed his mandate overnight, subordinating the anti-corruption pitch to the imperative of national survival.
Zelenskyy’s wartime presidency rests on a paradox: a former comedian now commands a nation at war, his political survival tied to the flow of Western weaponry and the resilience of Ukraine’s own industrial base. On the military front, Zelenskyy has pushed a specific industrial strategy.
In July 2024, he stated that Ukraine’s drone production had increased 100-fold. This is a direct response to the limits of Western-supplied munitions and the political constraints placed on their use. Drones are cheaper, faster to produce, and can be deployed without the same diplomatic fallout as long-range missiles provided by allies.
Under Zelenskyy’s leadership, Ukraine has conducted strikes on Russian oil refineries, including the August 26, 2024, attack on the Omsk refinery. These operations aim to disrupt Russia’s energy revenue and logistics.
Zelenskyy has consistently called for Western allies to provide long-range missiles and to lift restrictions on strikes inside Russia.
Approval Ratings and the Political Ground
Zelenskyy’s approval ratings in Ukraine have remained high, around 60% in mid-2024, according to polls. That figure is notable given the strain of a war now in its third year. It suggests that the public still sees him as the face of resistance, even as economic and human costs mount.
The 60% figure is not a blank check. It reflects a wartime rally effect that can erode if the front line stalls or if Western aid falters.
The president’s political capital is directly tied to his ability to secure concrete military support. Zelenskyy must balance domestic expectations with the realities of alliance politics. He cannot afford to appear as a supplicant, but he also cannot afford to alienate the donors who keep Ukraine’s defense forces supplied.
What to Watch Next
The key variable in the coming months is whether the Western restrictions on strikes inside Russian territory will hold. Zelenskyy has made the case publicly and privately that Ukraine needs the ability to hit logistical hubs and supply lines on Russian soil. The other factor is production.
The 100-fold increase in drone output is a significant industrial achievement, but the war consumes ordnance at a staggering rate. Whether Ukraine can sustain that production curve, and whether it can develop longer-range systems independently, will determine how much leverage Zelenskyy has in future negotiations.
For now, the president remains the central figure in Ukraine’s war effort—a comedian turned commander-in-chief navigating a conflict where the balance of power is written in munitions and diplomatic cables. The numbers on the battlefield and in the polls will tell the rest of the story.
