BEIJING, July 10 — China’s position on the war in Ukraine remains formally neutral, a stance it has held since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. That neutrality, however, sits alongside deepening economic and strategic ties with Moscow, creating a complex geopolitical calculus that Beijing has managed with careful public messaging. In February 2023, China released a 12-point peace plan.
The document called for a ceasefire and respect for territorial integrity, but notably did not condemn Russia for its actions. Beijing has repeatedly urged de-escalation and opposed unilateral sanctions imposed by Western nations.
The formula has allowed China to present itself as a potential mediator while avoiding direct criticism of its strategic partner. The economic dimension of this relationship is substantial. Bilateral trade between China and Russia reached $240 billion in 2023, according to official figures.
That represented an increase from $190 billion in the previous year, underscoring how the war has accelerated economic integration between the two countries.
Diplomatic engagement and a potential shift
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow in March 2023 and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The summit reinforced the public alignment between the two leaders, even as the war in Ukraine continued. A potentially significant development emerged in October 2024.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that China responded ‘harshly’ to Russian nuclear threats. Analysts have pointed to this as a possible shift in Beijing’s approach.
The reasoning is straightforward: China opposes nuclear escalation. Such an outcome could destabilize global security and damage China’s economic interests, which remain heavily dependent on stable international markets and supply chains. China’s foreign ministry has not publicly confirmed the reported response to the nuclear threats.
The lack of official confirmation leaves the episode in the realm of unverified reporting, though it has drawn attention from analysts watching for any change in Beijing’s posture.
The strategic context
For China, the war in Ukraine presents a dilemma. On one hand, deepening ties with Russia provide Beijing with a reliable energy supplier and a diplomatic partner that shares its opposition to what both countries describe as US-led hegemony. On the other hand, a nuclear escalation or a prolonged, destabilizing conflict in Europe would threaten the global economic stability on which China’s growth model depends.
The 12-point peace plan reflected this balancing act. It proposed a ceasefire and respect for territorial integrity — language that could apply to Ukraine — while avoiding any direct criticism of Russia.
The plan did not gain traction with either Kyiv or Moscow, but it allowed Beijing to claim a constructive role. China has also consistently opposed unilateral sanctions, a position that benefits Russia directly. Western sanctions have targeted Russia’s economy, and China’s refusal to join them has helped Moscow offset some of the economic pressure.
The increase in bilateral trade from $190 billion to $240 billion in a single year demonstrates the practical effect of this policy.
What to watch next
The key question going forward is whether China’s opposition to nuclear escalation will translate into more direct pressure on Moscow. The reported harsh response to Russian nuclear threats, if confirmed, would represent the most significant public divergence between Beijing and Moscow since the war began. Analysts will be watching for any further statements from China’s foreign ministry, as well as any shifts in Beijing’s public language regarding the conflict.
For now, the official position remains unchanged: neutrality, calls for de-escalation, and opposition to sanctions, combined with deepening economic and diplomatic ties with Russia. The record shows that China has not condemned Russia’s invasion.
Whether that remains the case in the event of further nuclear escalation is the open question that hangs over the relationship.
