WASHINGTON, July 13 — A 20 percent toll imposed on cargo vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz has escalated tensions that have been running high since the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May 2018. The toll, applied to commercial shipping passing through the strategic waterway, adds a new dimension to a confrontation that has already seen Iran breach the nuclear limits set by the 2015 agreement.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has enriched uranium to 60 percent purity, far exceeding the JCPOA’s cap of 3.67 percent, and as of 2024 held more than 120 kilograms of near-weapons-grade material.
Nuclear Breaches and Reduced Oversight
The IAEA reports that Iran’s nuclear program remains under inspection, but with reduced access since 2021. That erosion of monitoring capacity has complicated efforts to verify the scope of Iran’s enrichment activities. The agency’s findings place Iran in possession of a quantity of enriched material that, if further processed, could be used in a nuclear weapon.
Diplomatic efforts to revive the JCPOA stalled in 2022. Negotiations between Iran and world powers, which had shown intermittent signs of progress after the 2020 U.S. election, collapsed without a framework for returning to compliance on either side.
The European Union and China have condemned the new toll on Strait of Hormuz cargo, though their statements have not been matched by coordinated action.
Retaliation Scenarios
Sources familiar with regional security assessments indicate that Iran could retaliate against the toll by harassing or seizing commercial vessels, deploying naval mines in the waterway, or attacking Saudi and UAE oil infrastructure. Any of those options would risk a broader military confrontation in the Gulf, where roughly one-fifth of global petroleum consumption transits daily. The United Nations Security Council has not yet scheduled a meeting to address the toll or the broader escalation.
That absence of a formal international response leaves the situation in a diplomatic vacuum, with no clear mechanism for de-escalation.
Nuclear Negotiations at Risk
The toll could also affect ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. With the IAEA reporting reduced access to Iranian sites since 2021, and with Iran now holding more than 120 kilograms of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium, the margin for diplomatic error has narrowed considerably. The record shows that each escalation — from the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 to Iran’s enrichment breaches to the current toll — has moved the parties further from the framework that once constrained Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
What to watch next: whether the Security Council schedules a meeting, and whether the European Union or China moves beyond condemnation to any concrete measure. The toll has added a commercial dimension to a nuclear standoff that has already outlasted the original agreement designed to contain it.
