MOSCOW, July 7 — Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, which began in earnest in 2023 and intensified through 2024, have collectively reduced the country’s refining capacity by an estimated 10-15% in 2024, according to Ukrainian military intelligence. The campaign has targeted facilities across a wide geographic arc, from the Leningrad Oblast in the northwest to the Omsk refinery in Siberia. According to the record of incidents, the strikes have hit refineries owned by Russia’s largest energy companies, including Rosneft, Lukoil, and Tatneft.
The strategic objective, according to Ukrainian military intelligence officials, is twofold: to disrupt fuel supplies for the Russian military and to reduce export revenues that fund the war effort. The 10-15% reduction in refining capacity represents a meaningful operational constraint on the domestic fuel market.
Timeline of Key Strikes
The documented campaign opened with a January 18, 2024 strike on the Novatek Ust-Luga terminal in Leningrad Oblast, a major gas processing facility. Three days later, on January 21, 2024, the Tuapse Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai — owned by Rosneft — was attacked, causing a fire. February saw the strike on the Volgograd Oil Refinery, owned by Lukoil, on February 3, 2024.
March brought two significant attacks: the March 12 strike on the Ryazan Oil Refinery, owned by Rosneft, followed by the March 16 attack on the Slavyansk Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai. April 2, 2024 saw the attack on the Nizhnekamsk Oil Refinery in Tatarstan, owned by Tatneft.
The May 9 strike hit the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery in Rostov Oblast. June 21 brought the attack on the Afipsky Oil Refinery, also in Krasnodar Krai. The most significant damage occurred in late August 2024, with two consecutive strikes on the Omsk Oil Refinery on August 25-26, 2024.
The second strike caused significant damage to the facility, according to officials.
Strategic Implications
The geographic spread of the strikes is notable. Facilities in Krasnodar Krai, a region bordering the Black Sea, have been hit repeatedly. The Nizhnekamsk strike in Tatarstan demonstrated the range of Ukrainian drones, reaching deep into the Volga region.
The Omsk strikes, targeting a refinery in Siberia, represent the easternmost confirmed attack in the campaign. Each of these refineries processes crude oil into fuels including diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel — products essential for both military logistics and civilian consumption.
The cumulative effect of the 10-15% capacity reduction has forced Russian energy companies to adjust their operations. Russian officials have confirmed the attacks at the time of each incident, though they have not provided aggregate figures on capacity losses. Ukrainian military intelligence has been the primary source for the estimated reduction in refining capacity.
The campaign continues as of July 2026, with no indication that Ukrainian forces intend to halt the strikes. The question now is whether Russia can repair damaged facilities faster than Ukraine can target new ones — a logistical race that will shape fuel availability in the coming months.
