KYIV, July 15 — Against this backdrop of grinding artillery duels and nightly air raid sirens, the prospect of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia remains frozen, more than two years after the full-scale invasion began. The diplomatic track, once a bustling corridor of shuttle diplomacy and hastily convened summits, now lies quiet, with both capitals entrenched in positions that leave little room for compromise. The first tentative talks took place in Belarus on February 28, 2022, just days after Russian forces crossed the border.
Those initial meetings were followed by rounds in Turkey on March 10 and March 29 of that same year. The March 29 session in Istanbul produced what became known as the Istanbul Communiqué, a moment of fragile promise.
In those talks, Ukraine proposed adopting a neutral status in exchange for binding security guarantees from international partners. It was the closest the two sides ever came to a framework for ending the war.
The Istanbul moment and its collapse
What is at stake in that failed communiqué is a question that still haunts European capitals. Russia withdrew from the talks in April 2022, after the discovery of mass graves and evidence of summary executions in Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv. The revelation of what had occurred there shattered any residual trust between the delegations.
Subsequent attempts to revive negotiations via video conference stalled entirely, and no formal face-to-face meetings have taken place since. Ukraine, for its part, has since moved away from the neutrality proposal.
In November 2022, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a 10-point peace formula to the international community. That plan calls for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from all occupied Ukrainian territory and the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. It has become the baseline for all of Kyiv’s subsequent diplomatic outreach.
The wider picture: summits and alternative plans
The wider picture of diplomatic efforts includes the Global Peace Summit held in Switzerland on June 15-16, 2024. That gathering drew representatives from 92 countries, a significant show of international support for Ukraine’s position. Russia was not invited to the summit, a decision that critics argue limited its potential for tangible progress.
In the corridors of that conference, Western officials expressed cautious optimism, but no concrete roadmap emerged. Alternative peace frameworks have been floated by other powers.
China and Brazil have each proposed their own plans, but Ukraine has consistently rejected any framework that would require it to cede territory. Russia’s demands — including recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics — remain non-starters for Kyiv. Mediation efforts have continued through a handful of intermediaries.
Turkey, which hosted the early rounds of talks, has maintained contact with both sides. Saudi Arabia and the Vatican have also attempted to broker breakthroughs, but none have yielded results.
As of August 2024, no formal negotiations are ongoing.
What to watch next
For now, the diplomatic track remains in a deep freeze. The positions have not shifted: Ukraine insists on the full restoration of its territorial integrity; Russia demands recognition of its territorial gains. Neither side shows any willingness to move from these red lines.
Against this backdrop, the war grinds on, and the question of when — or if — negotiations will resume depends less on diplomatic creativity and more on events on the battlefield.
