VIENNA, July 19 — The 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, remains technically alive but largely dormant, according to current diplomatic assessments. The United States and Iran have not held direct talks since indirect negotiations in Vienna collapsed in August 2022. Nearly four years later, the standoff continues, with no clear path back to compliance.
Iran’s leadership, under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has conditioned any return to its obligations under the JCPOA on the verifiable lifting of all sanctions. The United States has not agreed to that condition.
The domestic political landscape in Iran shifted with a presidential election in June 2025, though the source material does not specify the outcome or how it affects the nuclear posture.
Options on the table
Several paths are being weighed. One possibility is renewed indirect negotiations under European Union mediation, possibly with a new formula that bridges Iran’s enrichment activities and sanctions relief. Another is a snapback of United Nations Security Council sanctions under Resolution 2231 — a provision that expires in October 2025.
The United States previously attempted to invoke that snapback mechanism in August 2020, but was rejected by the UN Security Council. That window has now closed, as the resolution expired nearly a year ago, in October 2025.
The International Atomic Energy Agency could also refer Iran to the Security Council via a Board of Governors resolution for non-compliance. That step would carry its own diplomatic weight and possible consequences. A so-called interim deal — modeled on the 2013 Joint Plan of Action — is also discussed as a way to freeze Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for limited sanctions relief.
Military action by Israel or the United States against Iranian nuclear facilities remains a contingency, though no such operation has been publicly confirmed by either government. The shifting political timelines have shaped these calculations.
The U.S. presidential election in November 2024 has already influenced policy continuity, and the change in administration that followed has set the current course. Iran’s own election in June 2025 introduced a new president, but the source material offers no further detail on that figure or their stance.
No breakthrough in sight
For those following the diplomatic efforts, the lack of direct communication between Washington and Tehran remains a central obstacle. The indirect framework that existed before August 2022 has not been revived. Without a mutual willingness to adjust positions — particularly on the scope of sanctions relief and the pace of enrichment rollback — the options ahead carry risks of escalation or further stalemate.
The international community now watches whether any of the available paths — negotiations, sanctions snapback, IAEA referral, an interim freeze, or military contingency — will shift the status quo. Each carries its own set of consequences, and none has yet produced a breakthrough.
