BRUSSELS — The European Union’s sanctions machine against Russia has hit a wall. Twenty packages in, the bloc is now staring at a blocked 21st round, stalled by Greece over concerns about closing loopholes on the shadow fleet and dual-use goods. The shift is unmistakable: what was once a rapid-fire response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion has become a grinding diplomatic slog.
The first package landed on February 23, 2022, the day before Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. It froze assets and banned travel for 351 members of the Russian State Duma.
That was the easy part. Since then, Brussels has methodically tightened the screws, targeting entire sectors of the Russian economy. The financial sector took a hit in March 2022 when seven Russian banks were booted off SWIFT.
Energy followed: an embargo on Russian coal in April 2022, then a partial oil embargo in June 2022. By December 2022, the EU and its G7 allies had introduced a price cap on Russian crude oil, set at $60 per barrel.
The European Commission reports that these measures have reduced Russian oil export revenues by about 30% in 2023 compared to 2022. That’s a serious dent, but it’s not a knockout blow. Russia has rerouted its crude to China, India, and other buyers, partially offsetting the impact.
The trend underneath is that sanctions are working, but they’re not working fast enough. The technology sector hasn’t been spared either. Export controls on semiconductors and aviation equipment were designed to starve Russia’s military-industrial complex of the high-tech components it needs to sustain its war effort.
Watch this space: enforcement has been patchy, and dual-use goods remain a major leakage point. Now comes the 21st sanctions package.
It was designed to plug the holes, specifically targeting the shadow fleet of aging tankers that Russia uses to evade the price cap, and clamping down on dual-use goods that slip through third countries. But Greece has blocked it. Athens is worried about the impact on its shipping industry, which has historically been a major carrier of Russian oil.
The standoff reveals a deeper fracture: the consensus that held the first 20 packages together is fraying. The numbers tell a story of diminishing returns.
The first package hit 351 individuals. Subsequent rounds have expanded to include more entities and sectors, but each new package requires unanimous approval from all 27 member states. That unanimity is getting harder to secure as domestic economic pressures mount across Europe.
What’s changing is the calculus in Brussels. The early packages were a moral and strategic imperative—a swift response to aggression. Now, the debate is increasingly about costs and loopholes.
The EU has already banned Russian coal and most Russian oil, but natural gas flows, though reduced, continue through pipelines and LNG terminals. The next frontier is enforcement, not escalation.
For now, the 21st package sits in limbo. The European Commission is likely to keep negotiating, trying to find language that satisfies Athens without gutting the measures. But the trend underneath is clear: the era of easy sanctions is over.
The real test will be whether the EU can sustain its pressure campaign through the diplomatic and economic friction that comes with long-term sanctions management. Watch this space.
