WASHINGTON, July 9 — The long shadow of the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal continues to define the contours of American-Iranian conflict, with a chain of retaliatory strikes and escalations that reshaped the Middle East. For readers trying to make sense of the current tensions, think of it like a game of strategic chess where each move—a withdrawal, a sanction, a uranium enrichment step—provokes a countermove, and the board keeps getting more dangerous. Here’s what happened, in plain terms.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, was the 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers that limited Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. In 2018, President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of that deal.
The practical upshot was immediate: the U.S. reimposed sanctions on Iran in November 2018, specifically targeting the country’s oil exports and its banking sector. Iran’s response came in July 2019, when it began exceeding the uranium enrichment limits that the JCPOA had set.
The September 2019 Oil Attack
The escalation turned kinetic on September 14, 2019. Drone attacks struck Saudi Aramco oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais. The U.S. blamed Iran for the strikes.
The attack temporarily cut global oil supply by 5%, a jolt that sent shockwaves through energy markets. For ordinary Americans, the so-what was visible at the gas pump, though the real story was the strategic message: Iran could reach critical infrastructure of a U.S. ally with precision weapons.
December brought a new flashpoint. On December 27, 2019, a rocket attack hit an Iraqi military base in Kirkuk. A U.S. civilian contractor was killed, and several U.S. service members were wounded.
The U.S. retaliated two days later, on December 29, with airstrikes on facilities belonging to Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia, in both Iraq and Syria. Those strikes killed at least 25 fighters.
The Embassy Siege and Soleimani Strike
The situation spiraled further on December 31, 2019. Iranian-backed protesters stormed the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, triggering a two-day standoff. The images of Americans hunkered down inside the embassy compound were a stark reminder of the 2012 Benghazi attack, and they demanded a response.
That response came on January 3, 2020. A U.S. airstrike killed Qasem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force—the elite unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible for overseas operations.
Also killed was Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces. Soleimani was no ordinary general; he was the architect of Iran’s network of proxy militias across the region, from Lebanon to Yemen to Iraq. His death was the single most dramatic U.S. strike against Iranian leadership in decades.
The practical upshot of that strike remains a matter of intense debate. Iran retaliated days later with ballistic missile attacks on Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops, causing traumatic brain injuries to dozens of American service members.
But the broader war that many feared did not materialize. Instead, the conflict settled into a pattern of proxy strikes, cyber operations, and naval incidents that continues to this day. What to watch next: Iran’s nuclear program has advanced far beyond the limits of the 2015 deal, with the IAEA reporting that Tehran now enriches uranium to near weapons-grade levels.
The U.S. administration under President Trump has maintained a policy of maximum pressure through sanctions, while Iran has deepened its military cooperation with Russia. The question is whether the two sides can find an off-ramp, or whether the chessboard is set for another direct confrontation.
