LONDON, July 20 — In the corridors of European defence think tanks, the Russo-Ukrainian war has entered a phase where economic infrastructure inside Russia is no longer a sanctuary. Analysts at the Royal United Services Institute project that Kyiv’s campaign against civilian logistics will intensify, with domestic drone production capacity expected to reach 2,000 long-range units per month by early 2025. The pattern, they say, follows the model of strikes on warehouses operated by Wildberries, the Russian e-commerce giant.
RUSI’s assessment, based on open-source intelligence and industry data, suggests that Ukrainian forces are prioritising attacks on e-commerce hubs, food processing plants, and retail distribution centres. The rationale is attritional: by disrupting the domestic supply chain, Ukraine aims to raise the cost of waging war for Moscow.
The Institute for the Study of War, which monitors battlefield dynamics, notes that such economic strikes have only a limited immediate effect on frontline operations but impose a lasting financial burden on Russia’s war economy. Ukrainian officials have made clear they will sustain this strategy as long as Russia’s economy continues to support the invasion. No formal condemnation of the tactic has been issued by international bodies, although the International Committee of the Red Cross has called for restraint.
Legal scholars are divided over whether targeting civilian e-commerce infrastructure constitutes a lawful act of war, given the dual-use nature of logistics networks that serve both civilian consumers and military supply chains. The Wildberries case, insiders say, has set a controversial precedent in international law.
Russia’s Response
Moscow has moved to protect its critical infrastructure. On 15 October 2024, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced an investment of 200 billion rubles — roughly $2.2 billion at the time — dedicated to air defence and electronic warfare upgrades for key facilities by 2025. The government also made insurance mandatory for e-commerce warehouses against drone damage.
Premiums, according to industry sources, surged 300 percent after the Wildberries attacks, reflecting a sharp reassessment of risk in the sector. Against this backdrop, the Russian e-commerce platform Ozon reported a 20 percent increase in security spending in the wake of the strikes.
Analysts expect that the next targets will include Wildberries’ sister delivery service, WBCity, and Ozon itself. The wider picture is one of a grinding economic war layered on top of a conventional one, with each side calculating how much the other can endure.
What Is at Stake
Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate, including potential mediation by Turkey and Saudi Arabia in late 2024, have yielded no ceasefire. The Ukrainian leadership maintains that as long as the Kremlin can finance its military machine, economic targets inside Russia remain legitimate. For Moscow, the challenge is twofold: shielding a sprawling civilian logistics network while maintaining the flow of supplies to the front.
In the corridors of Geneva and Brussels, the ICRC’s restrained appeal for restraint has done little to alter the calculus of either side. What is at stake is not only the course of the war but the emerging norms of conflict in an era where drone technology blurs the line between soldier and civilian infrastructure.
