For all the talk of a pact, the numbers now tell a different story. A new poll from Find Out Now finds 78 per cent of voters backing Kemi Badenoch’s refusal to do any deal with Nigel Farage. That includes 60 per cent of her own Tory voters and, crucially, 52 per cent of Reform supporters themselves.
The public, it seems, has little appetite for a marriage of convenience. This is not a minor detail.
It reshapes the arithmetic for the next election. Reform sits at 26 per cent in the poll, Labour on 19, the Tories on 17. Those figures point one way: a hung parliament.
No single party commands a majority. But if the two right-of-centre parties cannot or will not combine, the path to power for Labour becomes far clearer.
Badenoch’s hand has strengthened. The Aberdeen South by-election victory and her Commons performances have given her room. She took a clear line in The Mail on Sunday last week, and the polling suggests the country, including many who vote Reform, agrees with her.
That is a gamble that has paid off, at least for now. For Farage, the picture is less rosy. The Makerfield by-election defeat to Andy Burnham stung.
Then came the scrutiny over a £5 million donation from crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne. Friends of the Reform leader say he “needs a rest.” The man who once seemed unstoppable now looks tired, his shine gone.
The “Farage factor” has lost its pull. What happens next is a question of timing. Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street is expected to give Labour a bounce, however short-lived.
Parties could soon be neck-and-neck. But the poll numbers suggest the public is not buying a Tory-Reform coalition.
Even Reform’s own voters reject it. That leaves the two parties competing for the same ground, splitting the vote, and handing Labour seats on a plate. The wider picture is fragmentation.
Labour on 19 per cent is not a commanding lead. It is a sign of a splintered electorate. The Tories on 17, Reform on 26 — these are not stable numbers.
They could shift fast. But the key takeaway from the Find Out Now survey is clear: the public has spoken on a pact, and the answer is no. Badenoch’s gamble was a clean break.
She refused to play the game of coalition chatter. The poll vindicates her. Farage, meanwhile, is licking wounds.
His movement has momentum in the polls but no path to power without the Tories. And the Tories, for now, are not interested.
The next election is approaching. The arithmetic is tightening. A hung parliament looks increasingly likely.
But the shape of that parliament depends on whether the right can unite. The poll says they cannot. That is good news for Labour, even if their own numbers are weak.
It is a warning for Reform: popularity does not equal power. And for the Tories, it is a chance to rebuild alone, without the baggage of a deal.
