The Coalition’s primary vote is stuck at 17 per cent. That number is not moving. And according to the latest polling, the voters who left are not coming back — they are going to Labor.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor admitted as much on Monday, telling 2GB host James Willis the party has “some real work to do” to rebuild trust. But the numbers tell a harsher story.
In both The Australian’s Newspoll and the Redbridge poll published in the Australian Financial Review, the Coalition’s primary vote remained flat. Labor rose to 33 per cent in Newspoll and 30 per cent in Redbridge. One Nation’s vote slipped slightly, to 29 per cent.
The implication is clear. The Coalition is not the default destination for disaffected One Nation voters.
They are moving left, not right. Taylor described the party’s position as a heavy tanker that is no longer in free fall. Willis interrupted him: “You still are.” The exchange captures the political reality.
The rate of decline may have slowed, but the Coalition has not stopped losing ground. Taylor’s own position in Newspoll is now lower than when he replaced Sussan Ley in February. That timeline matters.
The party has been bleeding support for months. The latest figures suggest the haemorrhaging continues, even if the Opposition Leader claims the bleeding has slowed.
The bigger movement, intriguingly, was in One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s personal satisfaction rating, which dropped 10 points in the Redbridge survey. That suggests voters may be cooling on the party even as they remain reluctant to return to the Coalition. Taylor said he had “never attacked One Nation voters, and I never would.” But his primary focus is Labor.
Shadow minister Maria Kovacic put it more bluntly — though the report did not include her exact words. The consequences for the Coalition are stark.
A primary vote of 17 per cent is not a base to build on. It is a floor that may yet give way. The party needs to win back voters who have drifted to Labor, not just those who went to One Nation.
That is a different task entirely. It requires a message that appeals to working-class voters who have turned to Labor under Anthony Albanese, not just those who flirted with Hanson. Taylor’s tanker metaphor is apt.
A tanker does not turn quickly. It takes miles of ocean and careful navigation.
But the Coalition does not have miles. It has months before the next election. And the voters are not waiting.
The Redbridge poll showed One Nation’s primary vote pegged back slightly, to 29 per cent. That is still nearly double the Coalition’s share.
If those voters do not return to the Coalition, and Labor continues to absorb them, the opposition faces a long rebuild. Taylor’s leadership is now lower in Newspoll than when he took over. That is a problem that will not go away with a single interview.
What happens next depends on whether the Coalition can offer something more than a slower rate of decline. The tanker has to turn. The question is whether Taylor is the man to steer it.
The polls say no. The voters say no. And the clock is ticking.
