Quebec’s push for independence has taken a temporary setback as the economic fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs reshapes political calculations in the province. The 50% tariffs on Canadian steel, imposed in June 2023, triggered immediate industrial strain. A steel factory owned by The Heico Companies in Quebec lost roughly a third of its orders for bolts and fasteners within days, forcing layoffs, plant closures, and hiring freezes.
David Jeannotte, an operations director, noted the company cut 140 jobs, many in Quebec, with his brother among those affected. The factory’s struggles mirror broader economic anxiety in the province, which is bracing for a provincial election by 5 October.
Support for Quebec independence, which has historically fluctuated, now stands at about 30%, the lowest in decades. This decline contrasts with past economic downturns that often fueled separatist sentiment. Quebecers, particularly in its mostly French-speaking regions, are linking Trump’s policies to a renewed sense of Canadian unity.
“As long as Trump will be in his chair, I don’t feel that we even need to talk about that,” said Jeannotte, reflecting a sentiment echoed across the province. The threat of annexation and trade disruption has spurred an outpouring of patriotism, countering the long-standing separatist narrative that independence protects Quebec’s distinct culture and language.
Quebec’s separatist movement, led by the Parti Quebecois, holds a slim lead in polls but faces internal shifts. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who has vowed against holding a referendum while Trump remains in office, acknowledged the president’s influence. “Deciding Quebec’s political fate must not be hijacked by the upheaval of American politics,” he wrote on X.
Analysts suggest the PQ’s support may stem more from voter discontent with the ruling party than a genuine endorsement of independence. A third referendum, if the PQ wins, is unlikely to proceed under Trump’s administration, signaling a strategic pause.
The economic toll of Trump’s tariffs is stark. Quebec’s economy, heavily reliant on U.S. trade, is projected to grow only 1% this year, lagging behind Alberta and Saskatchewan. Industries like steel and aluminum—critical to Quebec’s economy—are disproportionately affected. Before the tariffs, 90% of Quebec’s steel products went to the U.S., including materials for iconic structures like New York’s Empire State Building.
Workers at affected factories report unpaid days and voluntary hour reductions, underscoring the human cost. Despite the political and economic headwinds, some separatists argue independence remains a critical goal.
Marie-Anne Alepin, president of the separatist Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal, contended that Canada cannot defend Quebec’s interests, citing cuts to French-language funding as an example. Ottawa has pledged to replace a relevant tax with government support, but separatists view this as insufficient. Quebec’s distinct identity, including its unilingual status and historical tensions with English-dominated Canada, continues to fuel debates.
The province never signed the Canadian Constitution, a point separatists emphasize to underscore their marginalization. The broader geopolitical chessboard reveals Trump’s policies as a destabilizing force.
His tariff threats and rhetoric on issues like Greenland have complicated separatist movements in Scotland and Catalonia. For Quebec, the immediate priority is navigating internal political dynamics. Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, who narrowly won last year’s federal election by pledging toughness on Trump, faces separatist pressures in Alberta as well.
Quebec’s decision to delay a referendum, if at all, may hinge on whether Trump’s policies subside. As Bédard, a former PQ leader, noted, “Quebec is stronger than it’s ever been, but the external factor of Trump has created a lot of insecurity.” The province’s 10% favorable view of Trump, per Angus Reid polling, underscores the deep divide.
For now, the calculus favors caution over confrontation, at least until the U.S. election cycle concludes.
