Ordinary Russians are feeling the war in their wallets and at the gas pump as Ukraine’s campaign against oil refineries grinds on. President Vladimir Putin has called the damage “not critical,” but the numbers tell a different story for civilians facing rising fuel costs and shortages that deepen by the week. Since March, Ukraine has launched more than 50 reported attacks on oil refineries and other energy facilities inside Russia and occupied Crimea.
The strikes have knocked about one-third of Russia’s refining capacity offline, according to Chris Weafer, chief executive of consultancy Macro-Advisory. That is not a minor hiccup.
It is a direct hit on the country’s ability to turn crude into gasoline and diesel — the fuels that move cars, trucks, and farm equipment across the world’s largest country. One of Moscow’s main refineries has been hit twice. The second attack, on June 18, set the facility on fire and damaged key equipment.
Repairs are reportedly expected to take until the end of the year. That is months of lost production at a plant that sits in the capital, ringed by what was supposed to be significant air defenses.
The impact is spreading. Fuel shortages are growing across Russia. This is not an abstract problem for the Kremlin.
It is a daily reality for drivers who cannot find gasoline, for farmers who need diesel for harvest season, for families who rely on delivery trucks to stock local stores. Putin has long told Russians the war does not directly affect them. That narrative is collapsing.
Weafer said the damage is lasting and will be expensive to repair. Expensive for a government already pouring billions into a war effort.
Expensive for an economy under Western sanctions. And expensive for ordinary people who will pay more for fuel or go without. Ukraine’s leaders say the refinery strikes are meant to pressure Moscow to end the war.
So far, that pressure has not worked. Putin has rejected any ceasefire proposal he says would benefit Ukraine.
He insists the war will continue until Russia’s goals are met. Those goals remain undefined, and there is no sign of compromise. The same day Putin downplayed the refinery attacks, Russia launched an 11-hour overnight barrage on Kyiv that killed at least 21 people.
It was one of the deadliest attacks on the Ukrainian capital since the full-scale invasion began. The two events are connected. Russia is striking back at Ukraine’s cities even as its own energy infrastructure burns.
For the average Russian, the war is no longer something that happens on a screen or in a distant battlefield report. It is a line at the gas station.
It is a price hike. It is a refinery fire visible on the horizon outside Moscow. The Kremlin’s promise that the conflict would not touch daily life has been broken.
How long the shortages last depends on how fast Russia can repair its refineries and whether Ukraine keeps striking them. The second Moscow refinery hit alone will take months to fix.
Other facilities face similar delays. The cumulative effect is a slow bleed on Russia’s fuel supply, and the people who feel it first are not the ones making decisions in the Kremlin.
