KYIV, July 15 — Against this backdrop of a grinding war, the prospects for a negotiated end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain as elusive as they have been since the first months of the full-scale conflict. Peace talks have been intermittent since the invasion began. Early rounds in Belarus and Turkey in March 2022 produced a draft agreement in Istanbul, but those negotiations collapsed in April 2022 after the discovery of alleged Russian war crimes in Bucha.
No direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv have taken place since May 2022, though indirect discussions through intermediaries have continued. What is at stake in any future negotiation is fundamentally incompatible.
Ukraine’s “peace formula,” proposed by President Zelenskyy in November 2022, lays out a 10-point roadmap that includes radiation and nuclear safety, food security, energy security, the release of all prisoners and deportees, restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, restoration of justice, prevention of ecocide, prevention of escalation, and a formal confirmation of the end of the war.
Russia, by contrast, has demanded that Ukraine recognize Crimea as Russian territory and accept the annexation of four partially occupied oblasts — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson — which Moscow claimed in September 2022 after staging referendums widely condemned internationally as shams. The wider picture on the ground has shifted since those early diplomatic efforts.
As of late 2024, the front line had largely frozen, with both sides launching only limited offensives. The coming winter of 2024-2025 is expected to see continued Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid. This would echo the 2022-2023 winter campaign, when Russia launched over 1,000 missiles and drones targeting critical infrastructure, leaving millions of Ukrainians without power for hours or days at a time.
Ukraine has improved its air defense coverage since then, but still lacks sufficient systems to protect all of its cities. Against this backdrop, the diplomatic impasse remains the central feature of the conflict. Ukraine insists on the full restoration of its internationally recognized borders as a precondition for any final agreement, while Russia shows no sign of abandoning its territorial claims.
The indirect talks through intermediaries have not yielded any public breakthrough. What to watch next is whether the expected winter strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid will shift the calculus in any direction — either by hardening Ukrainian resolve or by creating new pressure for a ceasefire.
The frozen front line and the absence of direct talks suggest that neither side sees a military or diplomatic path to victory in the immediate term, leaving the conflict to grind on with no end in sight.
